ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.

Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.

[Category6]

The Atlantic is churning out a lot of weak, ugly storms so far this season.

[robbielyn]

Yesterday's 12z HWRF at today's point.

https://i.imgur.com/aYKchul.png

Yesterday's supposed graphic of todays storm, after Hispanola, is more in tact than today's reality. We shall see if Fred can put himself back together again.

[eastcoastFL]

Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.

Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.

It’s dealing with some shear and Cuba is probably inhibiting some inflow. It’s not supposed to really restrengthen until tomorrow evening as it gets near the keys according to the NHC

[Nimbus]

Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.

[alienstorm]

Here is a longer loop couple of items to note:
1) Shear is definitely there around 20 knots
2) It seems to be picking up moisture east and southeast of any LLC
3) Slow down but seems in the last few frames a little north component is it a trend or just a wobble
4) It will need another 12 24 hours to moisten up all of the west side.

[alienstorm]

Here is a longer loop couple of items to note:
1) Shear is definitely there around 20 knots
2) It seems to be picking up moisture east and southeast of any LLC
3) Slow down but seems in the last few frames a little north component is it a trend or just a wobble
4) It will need another 12 24 hours to moisten up all of the west side.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[robbielyn]

Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.

idk. Levi says it all depends. It may be too weak to reorganize and generate convection. He said time will tell. He wasn't really able to tell which way it would turn out, TS or just some remnants.
Has anyone ever seen a wheel like structure ever come back to life? No convection in the center at all. Yesterday's HRWF structure of what should have come out after hispaniola looked way better than it currently does and that would have been good for regeneration but this? Will have to see.

[alienstorm]

Bahamas Composite Radar

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[chaser1]

Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.

Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.

It’s dealing with some shear and Cuba is probably inhibiting some inflow. It’s not supposed to really restrengthen until tomorrow evening as it gets near the keys according to the NHC

It's low level inflow is actually benefitting from the strong southerly fetch of moist air coming up from the Windward Passage at the moment. No doubt though, Cuba is inhibiting inflow and as Naked Fred continues to advance WNW'ward, away from the Windward Passage it's inflow should become further starved tonight.

As for the regeneration "will it- won't it" game? Meh... Sure, NHC might well hoist a new PTC back on Fred just in case but will it really shake anybody's world if this regenerates back to a minimal TS just south of the Keys verses becoming a more vigorous TD? What DOES interest me is "the potential" of areas receiving 5"-8" (or more) of rain and the potential of flooding. I'm not betting the farm on that happening yet but S. Florida does have a history of massive precip events as a result of weak-sister TD''s & TS's . Otherwise, if I weren't from Florida I'd probably be more interested in watching molasses drip from a spoon then counting rising hot-towers over 100 miles away from a fully undressed Tropical Depression

[Jr0d]

Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.

It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b

[Sciencerocks]

[robbielyn]

Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.

It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b

this is way worse than projected so yeah it may not be able to regenerate and ya know what? thats ok with me.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like it's slowing to me. Fred's naked swirl longs for a comfy blanket of a CDO, or at least some convection.

[Cat5James]

If it’s slowing then steering currents are weakening and it might be approaching the edge of the HP ridge… a more NW turn should follow and some much needed breathing room from the Cuban coastline

[robbielyn]

Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.

It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b

this is way worse than projected so yeah it may not be able to regenerate and ya know what? thats ok with me.

[johngaltfla]

Fred just needed a nap. He'll get some energy soon once he gets into the Florida Straits.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is going to be fighting with the inland convergence over Cuba into this evening. It anything is going to happen it will be tonight into the morning.

[chaser1]

Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.

idk. Levi says it all depends. It may be too weak to reorganize and generate convection. He said time will tell. He wasn't really able to tell which way it would turn out, TS or just some remnants.
Has anyone ever seen a wheel like structure ever come back to life? No convection in the center at all. Yesterday's HRWF structure of what should have come out after hispaniola looked way better than it currently does and that would have been good for regeneration but this? Will have to see.

Naked Fred sort of reminds me of those low latitude TD or TS "westward racers" that encounter strong upper level shear and where the LLC starts to become exposed. At first, new convection tries to re-fire but the fast low level center eventually out-run's it's MLC and eventually simply spins down.

I'm not sure if anyone mentioned it yet but in spite of our being used to seeing an LLC "magically" redevelop further north on approach to the Islands, this just wasn't going to happen in this case. Why? Think about this for a moment.... So often, we'll see an approaching TS or hurricane where the vertical tilt has the MLC "leading" or tilted on the northern side of the tropical cyclone's envelope. Many past storm tracks coming north through the Caribbean (especially weaker or developing systems) will already have part of the broader mid level circulation emerging north of the Islands. The LLC may weaken or practically fill but it's essentially easier for a reformed or redeveloped LLC to try and form elsewhere & under better conditions within that broader MLC envelope where some vertical lift and circulation still exist.

Simply stated, Naked Fred always seemed to have it's associated MLC to its South (or East). Even beyond the adverse UL winds or dry air plaguing it now, it seemed pretty evident to me that any LLC trying to emerge from the N Coast of DR, Haiti, or Cuba would be little more then an exposed swirl. There really is a lot of weight to the adage "follow the convection". That's usually where the LLC will follow. Without it though, it's a process to pull that rip-cord and start refiring towers, then banding, etc.

[Weatherboy1]

I was just going to stick a fork in Fred and say he was done. But if even some convection can fire nearer to his center, never say never I guess. Obviously has to stay off the Cuban coast too