ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021081018, , BEST, 0, 115N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al722021 to al952021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 10/1730Z

C. 11.7N

D. 27.5W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE AND FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO BANDING NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[ElectricStorm]

I've got a feeling this is gonna be a long thread. Here we go...

[captainbarbossa19]

I believe this could be the first major hurricane of the season. We will see.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Category5Kaiju]

I believe this could be the first major hurricane of the season. We will see.

Imagine if it gets the name Grace. That would be such an ironic name for such a kind of storm.

[galaxy401]

Doesn't look all that bad honestly. Will be a long tracker regardless of how strong it gets. Atlantic is finally awake now.

[wxman57]

Tough stretch of water ahead of it for the next 5-7 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

Whoa. Fastest invest declaration ever?

[Stormybajan]

Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Looks like 95L is going to have stay low if it wants to survive the SAL, which it should do imo I genuinely think this will another system for the lesser antilles to deal with ..intensity is a mystery right now but this bears watching for sure

[cycloneye]

Whoa. Fastest invest declaration ever?

You are right. A few minutes after the TWO.

[EquusStorm]

SAL isn't a big issue to its immediate west, but will be if it gains much latitude. Still could get wrapped in since it's so close to the north though. Probably closer to TC genesis than expected if the current presentation holds up, just needs to close something off at the surface

[aspen]

Mentioned this in the previous thread but you can see some dry air on vis moving in from the North about to interact with 95L. Already looks like it is eroding some of that convection on IR. Maybe why they kept probs low for the time being. Could be trouble down the road though.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Looks like 95L is going to have stay low if it wants to survive the SAL, which it should do imo I genuinely think this will another system for the lesser antilles to deal with ..intensity is a mystery right now but this bears watching for sure

Models keep this wave going pretty much due west for the next several days. Dry air entrainment from the north is still possible, but it doesn’t seem as bad as last week.

[Steve H.]

Not ignoring ptc 6, but 95l is getting my attention.

[AutoPenalti]

This has a tough road ahead, but definitely bears watching.

[SFLcane]

2004 2.0

 https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1425186373921869827

[aspen]

Convection overall has mostly waned since this morning, but it still has an impressive mid-level spin. This could develop much earlier than the operational models suggest. I hope the HWRF starts running for this system tonight.

[AlphaToOmega]

Convection overall has mostly waned since this morning, but it still has an impressive mid-level spin. This could develop much earlier than the operational models suggest. I hope the HWRF starts running for this system tonight.

If I recall correctly, diurnal minimum is afternoon over the ocean.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of of showers
and thunderstorms just west of its axis. Some gradual development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of of showers
and thunderstorms just west of its axis. Some gradual development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Oh wow, they upped the chances by 10% each. I personally would not be surprised to see code orange by at least the end of tomorrow