ATL: FRED - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The track on the models seem similar to Isaias last year and don’t be surprised if it reorganizes near Hispaniola like Isaias

[floridasun78]

it all depend if track to north of islands or over bigger islands can gave 94l good beating bad for them because floods

[Nimbus]

18Z models might shift south a little and they will probably be initialized with a closed circulation.
Expecting more out of the GFS this run.

[tolakram]

12Z EPS spread

[AtlanticWind]

ICON shifts north, over S. Fla

[tolakram]

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al942021/

[captainbarbossa19]

18z GFS is more south compared to 12z at 30 hours.

[BobHarlem]

The 18Z Icon is a bit further north than the 12Z, a has a S. Florida/homestead landfall on Saturday, but as a TD/weak TS. (The 12Z had it in the Florida Straits south of the Keys at the same time)

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is more south compared to 12z at 30 hours.

A hair. Could miss most of PR to the S and will hit the DR head on

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is a Cuba magnet.

[aspen]

18z HWRF develops a tiny core, but we’ll have to wait until recon arrives tomorrow morning to confirm. Looks like it’ll clip the SW corner of Puerto Rico.

Update: it actually goes south this run.

[lsuhurricane]

Very notable western shift in the GOM comparing the 12z to the 18z GFS ensembles.

Also a few quite strong. Plot slightly thickens...

[aspen]

Fred becomes a strong TS/minimal hurricane on the 18z HWRF before running into the DR on Wednesday afternoon and getting ripped to shreds. With such a compact core, I’m surprised that the HWRF isn’t going unrealistically bonkers with this.

[Cat5James]

Fred becomes a strong TS/minimal hurricane on the 18z HWRF before running into the DR on Wednesday afternoon and getting ripped to shreds. With such a compact core, I’m surprised that the HWRF isn’t going unrealistically bonkers with this.

There is still a circulation that emerges in tact so "ripped to shreds" is a bit of an overstatement... can still strengthen from this point

[toad strangler]

https://i.ibb.co/SyJ41Mv/651e3066-272c-4bd6-a0cf-451d515d883e.gif

Very notable western shift in the GOM comparing the 12z to the 18z GFS ensembles.

Also a few quite strong. Plot slightly thickens...

I guess but the evolution of vorticity on the 18z GFS is highly wonky.

[aspen]

Fred becomes a strong TS/minimal hurricane on the 18z HWRF before running into the DR on Wednesday afternoon and getting ripped to shreds. With such a compact core, I’m surprised that the HWRF isn’t going unrealistically bonkers with this.

There is still a circulation that emerges in tact so "ripped to shreds" is a bit of an overstatement... can still strengthen from this point

Yep, it starts strengthening again. I thought that the small circulation running over the giant mountains of Hispaniola would be the end of it on this run.

[lsuhurricane]

https://i.ibb.co/SyJ41Mv/651e3066-272c-4bd6-a0cf-451d515d883e.gif

Very notable western shift in the GOM comparing the 12z to the 18z GFS ensembles.

Also a few quite strong. Plot slightly thickens...

I guess but the evolution of vorticity on the 18z GFS is highly wonky.

Agree with that, but the operational run has no bearing on the various ensemble members.

The primary takeaway is that any lengthy Cuba landmass entanglement is likely to delay entrance into the GOM, creating additional variables regarding the strength of the ridge and western shear.

[Blown Away]

Pretty clear on 18z HWRF if PTC6 can get away from land it would develop. PTC6 is a land lover on the HWRF.

[SFLcane]

Pretty clear on 18z HWRF if PTC6 can get away from land it would develop. PTC6 is a land lover on the HWRF.

This run is not going to end well for SFL.

[NDG]

I can tell 18z HWRF will end much stronger than previous runs, with a much closer stacked circulation.