GFS interesting dif. 6Z to 12Z run

[LMolineux]

Very interesting change. Very confusing how it changed so dramtically so fast also.

here 06Z GFS run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/06/gfs_slp348384_m.shtml

Now the 12Z Run of the GFS same day

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_slp348384_m.shtml

Such a big difference.
I am finding thsi interesting because of the NAO is forecasted on or about this time to go strong Negative. This does corolate a bit with the new 12Z GFS run.

[Guest]

One word: Interesting.

[CaptinCrunch]

I agree the 12Z model is more accurate to the current weather pattern we are having with all the moisture thats streaming to the northeast from Texas.

see radar link....

[Stephanie]

I think that your 12z map should be the one for 342 hours. Six hours have past between the two runs so the 342 hours would be for the same day and time. That could be why we're not seeing precipitation in the NE in the 12z run. We're still below freezing though!

[JCT777]

Since we are talking 300+ hours away with the GFS, I expect to see this change quite a few times. Take everything you see with a pound of salt.

[wx247]

Since we are talking 300+ hours away with the GFS, I expect to see this change quite a few times. Take everything you see with a pound of salt.

Exactly... the GFS really does not do very well in the extended time frame.

[LMolineux]

But if you get what i am saying it is some sort of trend. And it is starting to seriously match the NAO forecast.

[wx247]

But if you get what i am saying it is some sort of trend. And it is starting to seriously match the NAO forecast.

I understand and it could be. However, I bet the GFS flops many more times before it gets it right.

[Guest]

Imo anything past day7 on this model i take with a grain of salt............Im not saying its useless but as others have stated it does alot of flipping and flopping after that timeframe.....................More or less what it shows is *Possibilities* Meaning it hints at things to possibly come the thing is where? Kinda like the last cold blast out in the Rockies and the Northern Plains the First week (Day 14-15) this model showed this cold air it had it farther east in the Lakes/NE region the point is the model picked up on the cold air it just didnt pick up on where it would be and then began the flip flopping to the west and then back to the east which in the end we all know it was farther west..................As i have seen a number of other people say (Trends are your friends) another thing to have is other model support such as the Euro and such and this especially applies in shorter range forecasting of less then 7days.............Another somewhat usefull tool that got mentioned is keeping a eye on the PNA-NAO and such which like LM pointed out the NAO is expected to go Negative at about this time while the PNA goes positive which normally suggest the east turning colder while the west warms up.............The fly in the ointment however is the PAC jet which as some know can screw everything up.......................So remember when looking at a model beyond 7days pretty much take it with a grain of salt and just keep a eye on it.

BTW sorry i havent been around in a couple of days but i have been rather buisy and have had very few moments to get on here...............Next week will be the same as my hours will change which will take me some getting use to. So if you dont see me much its because im adjusting to my new schedual which is work related but will do my best to post and update on here...........

[LMolineux]

BTW sorry i havent been around in a couple of days but i have been rather buisy and have had very few moments to get on here...............Next week will be the same as my hours will change which will take me some getting use to. So if you dont see me much its because im adjusting to my new schedual which is work related but will do my best to post and update on here...........

I am so glad your ok i was worried about you. Glad or hope it is not serious. But yes i am so glad to see you. I will be looking forward to seing you back on a reg. basis. Come when you have time i will be around for sure. Dont forget we are here and also here for you. Thank you KOW.

[Stormsfury]

Since we are talking 300+ hours away with the GFS, I expect to see this change quite a few times. Take everything you see with a pound of salt.

A pound of salt??? Well, the two go hand in hand I guess ..

Both are

1) Not healthy to ingest
2) Can induce heart attacks

[Stephanie]

SF

Is it me or does it seem to others on this board that the GFS has a tendency to be closer to what actually occurs in their long-range forecasts and totally inept in their mid-range forecasts?

LM - I think that what the GFS is showing now is reflecting a negative NAO with the deep trough developing in the East.

[ColdFront77]

Since we are talking 300+ hours away with the GFS, I expect to see this change quite a few times. Take everything you see with a pound of salt.

Actually, "taking something with a pound of salt" is the 'opposite' of "taking something with a grain of salt."