Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[Woofde]

That GFS run has this as a small system making some wild intensity swings. From hour 96 to 102 it drops almost 10 mb in 6 hours.

Edit: Oops, I posted in the wrong wave thread.
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[Hurricaneman]

These recent GFS runs should really light this thread up like a Christmas tree. Low latitude runner on the 12z. Clearly finding ideal conditions on approach to the GA islands

That’s not this system, it’s the middle wave between 92L and this thats being discussed in that thread

[aspen]

This wave probably deserves watching to see if it develops either north of the Greater Antilles or within the Gulf. Most model runs show it going over The Shredder, but depending on its exact track, it might find a favorable environment in the two regions I just mentioned, and there is a chance it misses the biggest islands like Dorian. Another “we’ll just have to wait and see” wave without a defined LLC for the models to center on.

[Spacecoast]

ECMF Ensembles have been consistent about the two western waves.
92L not so much,

[aspen]

GFS gets this into the eastern Gulf, but it doesn’t develop and it isn’t until around the 200hr range. Lots of time to see where it’ll go.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant
development of this system is not anticipated as it moves
west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean
Sea during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Cpv17]

The CMC develops this into a weak storm headed towards TX/LA.

[gatorcane]

Today’s 12Z Euro moves this wave into SE Florida a week from now, with no development:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is this thread the one for the wave at 40W? The current GFS is all over that one with a hit on PR

[AtlanticWind]

Longer-range model projections show the tropical wave currently
over the west-central tropical Atlantic moving through the Bahamas
late next week and approaching South Florida on Friday. Any
impacts from this wave would probably be just beyond the end of
this forecast period, but something to keep an eye on as we go
through the next few days.

From Miami NWS disscussion.

[captainbarbossa19]

Is this thread the one for the wave at 40W? The current GFS is all over that one with a hit on PR

No, this wave is closer to 50W. The one closer to 40W is tagged as the wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

[AnnularCane]

Is this thread the one for the wave at 40W? The current GFS is all over that one with a hit on PR

No, this wave is closer to 50W. The one closer to 40W is tagged as the wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

And the 40W wave is now Invest 93L.

[captainbarbossa19]

Today’s 12Z Euro moves this wave into SE Florida a week from now, with no development:

https://i.postimg.cc/C5cPK96b/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

The Euro has been performing very poorly with cyclogenesis. I would not be surprised to see this develop after passing Puerto Rico.

[AtlanticWind]

Convection now firing as the system passes 50w as many do this time of year.
Now we will see if conditions are good enough to allow any development.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

Nogaps

[Aric Dunn]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

[captainbarbossa19]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

I was wondering when you would post about this. Good to see you back! The GFS sure likes this now and it looks like it is going to take the same track as what the ICON has been showing.

[Spacecoast]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

[AtlanticWind]

I have been toying with a point system with potential systems using models and sat apperance .

As of 18z I would give this a 40 percent chance of development to at least a TD within 72 hours.

Again this is just something I am playing with and still refining.

I dont think the NHC is going to be calling me for advice

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon and 18z GFS now on board with this one. (And the 18z GFS pushes 93L out of favor) Next week will be interesting to follow.