Small low Pressure west of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

NHC adds the low pressure west of CV islands.

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower activity. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it
drifts toward the west-southwest or west over the central tropical
Atlantic through the middle of next week and potentially interacts
with the broader area of low pressure to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

I feel so bad for 92l, literally all of us are turning our attention toward the yellow waves now

[AnnularCane]

I feel so bad for 92l, literally all of us are turning our attention toward the yellow waves now

New babies do tend to get all the attention for a while.

[ElectricStorm]

This doesn't have model support however I think this could be one to watch if it makes it into the Caribbean or gulf.

[captainbarbossa19]

This doesn't have model support however I think this could be one to watch if it makes it into the Caribbean or gulf.

GFS now likes this and has it becoming the dominant system.

[captainbarbossa19]

This doesn't have model support however I think this could be one to watch if it makes it into the Caribbean or gulf.

GFS now likes this and has it becoming the dominant system.

989 mb now. Now I am getting curious!

[weeniepatrol]

[Category5Kaiju]

Correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like GFS wants to combine 92L with the 3rd AOI to form this new system?

[weeniepatrol]

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower activity. Some
development of this low is possible while it drifts toward the
west-southwest or west over the weekend and then moves a little
faster toward the west-northwest over the central tropical Atlantic
by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://imgur.com/DKOW3Uy

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower activity. Some
development of this low is possible while it drifts toward the
west-southwest or west over the weekend and then moves a little
faster toward the west-northwest over the central tropical Atlantic
by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Chances are starting to increase and so is convection near the center.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like GFS wants to combine 92L with the 3rd AOI to form this new system?

Nah, it's a separate low altogether that starts to congeal as the monsoon trough breaks down.

[MarioProtVI]

Soon-to-be-93L is reminding me a lot of pre-Paulette and that other wave’s interactions last year.

[cycloneye]

93L comming soon.

GENESIS019, AL, L, , , , , 71, 2021, DB, O, 2021080700, 9999999999, , 019, , , , GENESIS, , AL712021

[AlphaToOmega]

93L comming soon.

GENESIS019, AL, L, , , , , 71, 2021, DB, O, 2021080700, 9999999999, , 019, , , , GENESIS, , AL712021

Where do you get this?

[cycloneye]

93L comming soon.

GENESIS019, AL, L, , , , , 71, 2021, DB, O, 2021080700, 9999999999, , 019, , , , GENESIS, , AL712021

Where do you get this?

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce limited shower activity.
Some development of this low is possible while it drifts toward the
west-southwest or west over the weekend and then moves a little
faster toward the west-northwest over the central tropical Atlantic
by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS is now more enthusiastic with this wave than it ever was with Invest 92L, for it develops this into a 961-millibar major hurricane. It also briefly develops the wave to its west. The monsoon trough is, for some reason, something the models have difficulty interpreting.

[aspen]

Maybe this wave will find better luck than 92L, since it’s further from the monsoon gyre and within warmer SSTs. 92L had to worry about being warped by the gyre or tossed too north. I find it hard to believe that nothing will come out of all these waves.

The GEFS ensembles are as excited about this wave as the operational model is.

[aspen]

According to the GFS, soon-to-be-93L will be in quite a moist environment and remain around 13N on Monday and Tuesday. It’s forecasting 200-800mb average shear to be in the 10-15 kt range, although there’s a lot of wind direction variation af different heights, which will probably be an issue for development. By Wednesday afternoon — which is when the 06z GFS shows a moderate TS — the wind directions will all align, but shear will be around 15 kt. The 300-850mb RH also drops a bit, but not by much; it’s still nearly 80%.

Future 93L begins to gain latitude at around 50W, and by 18z Wednesday, it is at roughly 15N and 54W. However, SSTs will be much more favorable than the same latitude where 92L currently is. Overall, the GFS’ environmental forecasts seem quite decent for development through the next 4 days.

[cycloneye]