Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/d635EFZ.gif

12z CMC... Moves the Central Atlantic TW towards Florida, tries to close off the low but remains a strong TW... Pattern seems to be through NE Caribbean, SE Bahamas, and SFL... Something to watch, maybe 20% chance

These waves are must watches. As most of us are aware, models can completely miss genesis along the trail.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into
early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

I don't see anything there at all. TPW loop shows nothing. Not much on visible satellite. Doesn't appear to be a development concern. I have no idea why the NHC mentioned it.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Doesn't do much with this wave and moves on a general WNW path through NE Caribbean, SE Bahamas, and into South Florida in 10 days...

[Woofde]

It's a little difficult to make out because of the interspersed images on Tidbits, but the Canadian ensembles seem to be rather bullish on this wave.

[imgur] https://imgur.com/a/aznOHIt [/imgur]

[aspen]

It's a little difficult to make out because of the interspersed images on Tidbits, but the Canadian ensembles seem to be rather bullish on this wave.

https://imgur.com/a/aznOHIt

Yeah the GEPS ensembles really like this wave. It’s just about as strong of a signal as the EPac storm(s). The signal is far weaker on the GEFS, though, so we’ll have to see if the other models pick up on this or the GEPS/CMC is gonna be alone.

[Nimbus]

It would have to come from really low latitude, the sunset thunderstorm on the loop isn't near any obvious apex and there is shear.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into
early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Jr0d]

Looks like CMC keeps it as a wave making it to the Bahamas and South Florida with some vort..but not developing it.

Certainly something to watch as it does not take much for something to spin up in mid August in that area.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 44W from 18N
southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 44W and 48W.

[AlphaToOmega]

I am ready to say that there is a >50% chance of seeing a tropical depression within the next 5 days.
Disturbance I chance: 20%
Disturbance II chance: 40%
Chance of neither developing: 80% * 60% = 48%

[Jr0d]

The ICON is now showing something develop, but takes it through the grinder of Hispaniola and being ripped apart.

Still something we need to watch.b

[Blown Away]

Some convection around this wave.

[AtlanticWind]

A lot of waves see a flare up of convection at 50 longitude this time of year.
Will be looking for that in the next couple of days.

[Blown Away]

2pm NHC had TW @11N/46W... Lots of convection now popping with some rotation to the E of that position...

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks pretty healthy to me right now

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some
slow development is possible early next week when it is expected to
be near the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro seems to send this to Bermuda as a pretty potent system, but the Operational is on the far eastern side of the ensemble envelope which seems to point towards the Bahamas, South Florida and Greater Antilles so the operational might adjust towards the ensemble envelope which could spell trouble if this develops

The 18zGFS shows a wave from this over Florida so this wave bears watching

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 50W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 12N to 15N between 50W and 53W.

[sma10]

Might want to keep an eye on this one next week. Nothing much showing up on the models yet, but if you look at the CMC, ICON and GFS it seems that they get very close to popping something off when the circulation approaches 20N 65W