Strong Tropical Wave Emerging From West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[Nimbus]

This system is far enough south that it actually has a chance. Too early to know if this will be OTS, but guidance so far has been showing a strong ridge over the Atlantic.

Now that they are watching the pouches while they are still over Africa, makes sense they would pick a low latitude pouch to model early for development.

[ouragans]

92L comming soon.

GENESIS018, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2021, DB, O, 2021080406, 9999999999, , 018, , , , GENESIS, , AL792021

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc

Over Africa? Really?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is this the Fred? The great and terrible fred? [Attempt number two]=RISE MY CHILD RISE!

[Blown Away]

Here comes possible future 92L/Fred about to splash into the Atlantic! Looks impressive over land ATM...

[aspen]

The story remains the same: OP models are very bearish, ensembles show development, and the GFS/GEFS and Euro are split between it either getting dragged a bit north or continuing due west.

[Blown Away]

The story remains the same: OP models are very bearish, ensembles show development, and the GFS/GEFS and Euro are split between it either getting dragged a bit north or continuing due west.

The timing of this TW's arrival in the Western Atlantic basin is at the time when the Atlantic switch usually turns on and becomes more favorable. That switch turns on usually mid to late August, so I think it's much more difficult for models than normal in early August to sense general weather patterns 10+ days out. We likely won't know to much until this TW gets into the Central Atlantic in a week or so. JMHO

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The NHC is taking rather long to update the graphical TWO.

[Shell Mound]

The story remains the same: OP models are very bearish, ensembles show development, and the GFS/GEFS and Euro are split between it either getting dragged a bit north or continuing due west.

Interestingly, among GEFS members that do develop this wave, the strongest are actually well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde islands.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1422893600283807745




Caveat on 6z GEFS:
 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1422892932517011461

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The NHC is taking rather long to update the graphical TWO.

[captainbarbossa19]

If anything gets going, let's just say it's not going to turn north anytime soon.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS is coming in much stronger for this system.

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS is coming in much stronger for this system.

Would presume this is directly related to downstream shear reduction from the EPAC system that GFS doesnt model quite a strong.

[aspen]

12z GFS is coming in much stronger for this system.

Still doesn’t want it to become anything beyond 120hr, although it is backing off on EPac activity; the 0/30 AOI’s development time keeps getting pushed back.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS is coming in much stronger for this system.

Still doesn’t want it to become anything beyond 120hr, although it is backing off on EPac activity; the 0/30 AOI’s development time keeps getting pushed back.

Right. I think every run models are starting to pick up on less favorable conditions in the EPAC and more favorable in the Atlantic. I suspect the Euro is going to show something similar for its 12z run.

[aspen]

Quite an uptick in activity from the 12 GEFS ensembles. All of them recurve, but it appears to be due to the wave being tossed a little further north by the monsoon trough and catching a break in the ridge that may or may not be present in a week.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development thereafter over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system
moves generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Shell Mound]

Quite an uptick in activity from the 12 GEFS ensembles. All of them recurve, but it appears to be due to the wave being tossed a little further north by the monsoon trough...

I’ll reiterate: this latest 12Z run just proves my earlier supposition that the strong African monsoon will cause lots of systems to eject northward and curve OTS. This will likely save the U.S. from most, if not all, potential CV-type threats, including this one, despite otherwise strong and robust mid-level ridging projected to be in place. The main issue is that the monsoonal trough will cause this system to eject westward at a high latitude that typically results in CV-type long-trackers curving OTS, especially in years in which TCG occurs farther east in the MDR than is usual. Starting in two and a half days the 12Z GEFS members show this prospective system gaining a full five degrees of latitude in little more than a day, thanks to the monsoonal trough. This will likely become a seasonal trend, thankfully, but we shall see.

[captainbarbossa19]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development thereafter over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system
moves generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/Lz8s69c.png

Orange alert!