Strong Tropical Wave Emerging From West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. This system has the potential for slow development
over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend while it moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

This is what the GFS spun up on 12z south of the islands.

[captainbarbossa19]

This system is far enough south that it actually has a chance. Too early to know if this will be OTS, but guidance so far has been showing a strong ridge over the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

There was once a time the NHC waited until the wave made the splash (or if the models were really bullish with quick development as soon as wave moved off Africa) before mentioning in an outlook but I noticed of years late they mention them while inland over Africa. Maybe there is a potential for something impacting the Cabo Verde islands so that is why they mentioned.

[cycloneye]

12z European.

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

Potential first CV storm?

[gatorcane]

Runs into unfavorable conditions in the long-range:

[SFLcane]

Runs into unfavorable conditions in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/NGbjR7D2/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh168-240.gif

We’re are just getting started.

[captainbarbossa19]

Runs into unfavorable conditions in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/NGbjR7D2/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh168-240.gif

We’re are just getting started.

Right. 10 days out is too far to know if conditions really will be unfavorable. Also, conditions should gradually continue to improve for TCs as we get closer to peak season.

Edit: Also, remember that the Euro kept killing Elsa over and over yet she survived.

[aspen]

In the GFS, this wave quickly gets pushed a bit north and is stuck within less than favorable conditions for a few days. In the 12z Euro run, it remains at a low latitude and keeps going due west. The ensembles for each model show the same track as the OP.

[aspen]

18z GFS wants this to die as fast as possible…and for a hurricane to form right next to the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. This system has the potential for slow development
over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend while it moves
generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Here it is over Nigeria.



https://eumetview.eumetsat.int/static-i ... /IR108/BW/

[Category5Kaiju]

Here it is over Nigeria.

https://i.imgur.com/rGryOCN.jpg

https://eumetview.eumetsat.int/static-i ... /IR108/BW/

Looks pretty robust Hopefully Nigeria's ok

[cycloneye]

Is a large wave.

[Stormybajan]

Is a large wave.

https://i.imgur.com/8254wUy.jpg

If that truly is the wave, given its close proximity to the west african coast, it looks like it might splash down Wednesday night instead of Thursday..

[Shell Mound]

Runs into unfavorable conditions in the long-range:
https://i.postimg.cc/NGbjR7D2/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh168-240.gif

The EPS is showing a strong TUTT anchored near the islands—fortunately, because mid-level steering would favour a threat to the Bahamas and Florida:



By the time the TUTT departs in late August and early September, that ridge is likely to be replaced by a trough, in line with early-fall climatology.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1422697192058408964



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422698543714865152



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1422643040947146754



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1422644182376718339



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422647589070155779

[Kohlecane]

looks like the 06z GFS has this coming off Africa in 30-36hours. I think this season will become a big learning curve for future guidance and forecasting, (e.g Elsa)

[cycloneye]

92L comming soon.

GENESIS018, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2021, DB, O, 2021080406, 9999999999, , 018, , , , GENESIS, , AL792021

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc