Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 18N southward and
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 17W and 30W.

[aspen]

If the Euro is the one model that successfully predicts development and all the other globals fail…wow, what a comeback from last year.

My hat is set aside in the event the Euro is right.

Watch the Euro drop development of this, and then it develops in about 3-5 days.

I guarantee the 12z Euro will drop it.

Yep lol.

GEFS ensembles keep it, let’s see what the Euro ensembles do.

[cycloneye]

For now all stays as it is now waiting for more clarification.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 18N southward and
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 22W and 33W.

[cycloneye]

Split the thread to separate this area from the one that NHC is highlighting.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 33W from 18N
southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 32W and 34W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N southward and
moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 06N to 09N between 31W and 41W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 36W/37W from 18N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
described in the section below.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/zFnTeCM.png

Probably a good call since some of the ensembles are showing potential for this system. The Euro ensembles’ track for this would have it threaten the Bahamas next week.

[Shell Mound]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/zFnTeCM.png

Probably a good call since some of the ensembles are showing potential for this system. The Euro ensembles’ track for this would have it threaten the Bahamas next week.

Those members are developing 91L near the Leeward Islands and southeastern Bahamas next week. None of the ensembles actually develops this wave.

[tolakram]

I expect west development first, so this might be the one. I don't expect models will show much until < 5 days out, based on performance over the last couple of years.

[AutoPenalti]

So many waves to track.

[Blown Away]

06z ICON shows this low developing slowly...

[Blown Away]

00z CMC shows a weak low moving over NE Caribbean, just N of Hispaniola, and into SE Bahamas in 10 days...

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/qVsClVo.gif

00z CMC shows a weak low moving over NE Caribbean, just N of Hispaniola, and into SE Bahamas in 10 days...

This definitely needs to be watched closely. We have seen many "nothing to see here" waves develop in this region. Also, steering could send this towards the Gulf as the ridge appears to build into the east coast next week.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Cabo Verde season has begun!

[aspen]

12z CMC is a little bit stronger this run and gets the wave into the Bahamas. 12z ICON also tries to develop this, but it’s a little too south and runs over all the islands like Laura.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Cabo Verde season has begun!

I wouldn’t say that. All we have are a few waves which is typical for this time of year. Model support even within 5 days is slim to none for all of them. Still lots of dry air and shear out there but we are getting closer to when the season would start which is mid Aug.

[Blown Away]

12z CMC... Moves the Central Atlantic TW towards Florida, tries to close off the low but remains a strong TW... Pattern seems to be through NE Caribbean, SE Bahamas, and SFL... Something to watch, maybe 20% chance