2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS backing off some, only showing 1 major and another hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC has two more systems by the end of its 10 day run

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/j4gpzmm.png

https://i.imgur.com/Y1ckBby.png

12z GFS backing off some, only showing 1 major and another hurricane.

Watch for this potential trend. I suspect that this burst of storms may be coming to a close soon. I think the Atlantic is going to shift to an active phase in 1-3 weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF moving the timeframe down, showing development starting day 5-6.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/j4gpzmm.png

https://i.imgur.com/Y1ckBby.png

12z GFS backing off some, only showing 1 major and another hurricane.

Watch for this potential trend. I suspect that this burst of storms may be coming to a close soon. I think the Atlantic is going to shift to an active phase in 1-3 weeks.

Yea it’s slowly caving to a more active Atlantic pattern. Notice how the GFS is showing southerly instead of westerly shear in the MDR.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1422272483051417600

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro joining the CMC in showing two systems in the 96-240 hour range.




This is not counting the long range EPS and GFS system.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly the 46 day EPS weeklies is not that much less favorable than what the GFS has been showing. -VP setup by the EPS would favor both WHEM basins for the first half of the month, though that would definitely reverse itself in the second half before early to mid September, it becomes a little more favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ICON only other model than the GFS to show a potent hurricane.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/Q45esrM.png

12z ICON only other model than the GFS to show a potent hurricane.

So the models have trended weaker for this possible system?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS very messy, spins up three areas of vorticity in the long range.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Not too bad considering the unfavorable indicators.

[Category5Kaiju]

Remember that very powerful third system that GFS wanted to blow up into a monster the past runs? Looks like the 0z run really tempered down that idea

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS CHI 16 day anomaly compared to 24 hours ago:





That's a more reasonable CHI anomaly than I expected. If anything looking at the rest of the times in the runs seems to suggest that the -vP is slightly stronger this cycle. This might be a case of two wrongs making a right, as the TC physics seemed a little off here at first glance.

[NDG]

Easterly shear has kept the EPAC on check, a sign that the Atlantic will be busy as we get closer to the peak of the season. IMO.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to crank out EPAC storms. Here is the long-range with yet another one behind the 0/30 one:

[captainbarbossa19]

The GFS continues to crank out EPAC storms. Here is the long-range with yet another one behind the 0/30 one:

https://i.postimg.cc/SN29tQSk/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh168-324.gif

There may be one more storm, but I would not be surprised if the second system gets dropped or is very weak. Climatology is going to really start focusing on the Atlantic soon.

[weeniepatrol]

The GFS continues to crank out EPAC storms. Here is the long-range with yet another one behind the 0/30 one:

I wonder - does the GFS also have beachfront property in Nebraska to sell me?