Low Pressure south of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Is this it?

608
ABNT20 KNHC 021729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves northward or northwestward before the system moves over cool
waters by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[wxman57]

EC is all by itself in developing something there in the next day or two. Very little in the GFS, CMC, and ICON. I think the EC is on crack. MDR is still very hostile with lots of dry, sinking air. I doubt if anything will develop over the coming week.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1422258806801637382




Not sure about its actual chances, but there are several things going in its favor before Thursday as Philippe points out here:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves northward or northwestward before the system
moves over cool waters by Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Nimbus]

Pulled a lot of moist air off Africa, but the wave in front is keeping it north and stealing the moisture.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Edited title to change once again the name of disturbance.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small area of low pressure with a few associated showers and
thunderstorms has formed about 120 miles south of Praia in the Cabo
Verde Islands. Further development of this system, if any, should
be limited during the next day or two while it moves northward or
northwestward before the system moves over cooler waters by
Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[MarioProtVI]

NHC is underestimating this severely as it seems to be pulling a 10L rn. LLC is visible with convection. Should be 40/40 IMO. If trends continue could see a brief TD maybe even TS before it dies.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I think 10% is pretty generous. I would put it at around 0%.

[Stormybajan]

NHC is underestimating this severely as it seems to be pulling a 10L rn. LLC is visible with convection. Should be 40/40 IMO. If trends continue could see a brief TD maybe even TS before it dies.

Im not so sure about that...

[Category5Kaiju]

NHC is underestimating this severely as it seems to be pulling a 10L rn. LLC is visible with convection. Should be 40/40 IMO. If trends continue could see a brief TD maybe even TS before it dies.

Im not so sure about that...

Mario actually may be onto something though; it just got upgraded to Invest 91l

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up