CPAC: JIMENA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS brings this to 993mbar into the CPAC.

[Astromanía]

Just as the last invest that never developed

[Sciencerocks]

Just as the last invest that never developed

Both had well defined LLC backed by ascat and the last one had 2.5t. It was the nhc's choice not to upgrade.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT.

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the east and southeast of its center. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 281802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 28/1730Z

C. 12.9N

D. 120.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 2.5/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. THERE
HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CIRCULATION
SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 24 HR DEVELOPMENT TREND IS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY RESULTING MET AND PT TO BE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF keeps this weak but shows it one of many in parade. Middle system in both images.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS a bit stronger, making this a potent hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Deep convection trying to build back over the weak but clear LLC:

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the east and southeast of its center. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

TXPZ28 KNES 282353
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 13.7N

D. 120.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR OR UNDER LARGE COLD
CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 2.0 BASED ON THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE
AND ARE EQUAL TO 2.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro has this down to 992mb in 3.5 days.

NHC should have this as a TD already. Its had a consistent 2.0 fix for about 24 hours now and convection has consistently been 0.5 degrees away from the LLC.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS showing a binary interaction with 90E in which 90E is dominant. This would seriously limit the intensity of 99E but not sure how realistic it is. GFS tends to overdo binary interactions and 90E while larger will also be over cooler waters if it were to veer north as projected. If one of the two were to become a long tracked hurricane, which is a distinct possibility, better hope for no interaction.

[Kingarabian]

Other than the GFS, no other model has this interacting with 90E.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has this getting absorbed by 90E. Need a couple of runs more for the GFS to get this binary bias out of the way so we can truly see what it wants to do with 99E.

00z CMC weak and south of Hawaii.

00z UKMET finds a break ridge and quickly lifts it north while not making it stronger than a mid range TS.

[Kingarabian]

1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with an
area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

This needs to develop ASAP before 90E. If it doesn't, the Euro is joining the GFS and ICON solutions of 90E absorbing 99E. Once 90E deepens, it will race westward allowing for the binary interaction to happen.

[Kingarabian]

NHC should be issuing advisories IMO. Persistent convection now over the LLC for the past 12 hours: