How many named storms will form in August?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:48 pm

The poll that has 7 options will close for voting on July 31rst at 2:48 PM EDT.

CyclonicFury · #2 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:51 pm

Four. Three will be after the 20th, including the first major hurricane of the season.

aspen · #3 Postby **aspen** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:53 pm

Going with 4. It’s the average number of August TCs in active years between 2010-2020, so it’s a rather safe guess. The currently unfavorable Atlantic should be ready for TCG in the tropics by the first week of the month (maybe the second week at the latest), and VP anomalies afterwards look quite good, so maybe there’s the potential for a more active August. However, even 2017 and 2020 only had 4 storms form in the month despite being hyperactive in terms of ACE (2017) and storm/hurricane numbers (2020), so that’s what I’m sticking with.

ElectricStorm · #4 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:56 pm

4 seems pretty good to me

AlphaToOmega · #5 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:04 pm

I could see five or even six. The overall VP anomaly map looks like a classic favorable setup.

Stormybajan · #6 Postby **Stormybajan** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:13 pm

I'm going with four, the bigger question should be how many will be hurricanes. Last month I predicted 3 storms and we are most likely going to finish 1/3 of that due to the absolute overwhelming strength of the suppressive MJO unless 90L gives me a surprise tomorrow . So im a bit more conservative this month and go with four storms, 2 before August 20th and 2 after (the latter should be stronger)

#7 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:58 pm

Five with a massive burst of activity starting around August 20th. I think one is going to be the first major too.

Category5Kaiju · #8 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:32 pm

Went with 5; late August looks to be prime time for storm development, and I do have a hunch that it will be quite active compared to some of the more recent late Augusts

CFLHurricane · #9 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:05 pm

August is going to go bananas once the first sacrificial wave clears the SAL. My vote is 6 or more storms.

FireRat · #10 Postby **FireRat** » Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:27 pm

Going with 3.
perhaps a tropical storm/weak hurricane during the 1st half of August followed by two storms including a possibly stronger hurricane in Late August.

CYCLONE MIKE · #11 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:12 pm

FireRat wrote:Going with 3.
perhaps a tropical storm/weak hurricane during the 1st half of August followed by two storms including a possibly stronger hurricane in Late August.

I agree. 2 or possibly 3 seems very reasonable to me. See nothing that shows things are going to explode in august. People saying 6 or more are just -removed- for a hyperactive start.

AlphaToOmega · #12 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:21 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
FireRat wrote:Going with 3.
perhaps a tropical storm/weak hurricane during the 1st half of August followed by two storms including a possibly stronger hurricane in Late August.

I agree. 2 or possibly 3 seems very reasonable to me. See nothing that shows things are going to explode in august. People saying 6 or more are just -removed- for a hyperactive start.

-removed-????? Everybody wants an inactive season, but the models suggest a very favorable pattern for August.

ElectricStorm · #13 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:40 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
FireRat wrote:Going with 3.
perhaps a tropical storm/weak hurricane during the 1st half of August followed by two storms including a possibly stronger hurricane in Late August.

I agree. 2 or possibly 3 seems very reasonable to me. See nothing that shows things are going to explode in august. People saying 6 or more are just -removed- for a hyperactive start.

Not really... There's some pretty solid indicators that support an active August. I went with 4 but I would say there's a better chance we end up with 6 than just 2.

Shell Mound · #14 Postby **Shell Mound** » Mon Jul 26, 2021 2:27 am

Four, including a MH in the last week

#15 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:20 am

Three, with more activity in September.

#16 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:19 am

I am going to with 4 systems developing, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes & one becoming our 1st major hurricane of the 2021 season. Disclaimer: I am not a tropical meteorologist nor do I play one in real life but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night!! :lol:

#17 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:03 pm

TampaFl wrote:I am going to with 4 systems developing, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes & one becoming our 1st major hurricane of the 2021 season. Disclaimer: I am not a tropical meteorologist nor do I play one in real life but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night!!

Holiday Inn Express :lol:

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:02 pm

Time is running out as the poll will close for voting on July 31rst at 2:48 PM EDT so those who still have not voted come fast and cast yours.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:23 am

Time is running out as the poll will close for voting this afternoon at 2:48 PM EDT EDT so those who still have not voted come fast and cast yours.

#20 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:13 am

My guess is that August will have 4 named storms, with Grace or Ida as a potential threat to the Leeward Islands and/or Puerto Rico and eventually Florida