Surface Trough Offshore the SE U.S Coast (Is Invest 90L)

[ouragans]

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Georgia is expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline by Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into early next week while the system drifts slowly offshore of coastal North and South Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

Looks like the tail end of the trof may drop enough south and could end up spinning up a surface low in the east GOM, north of the Keys, in a few days.
Keeping an eye on it.

[GCANE]

ICON showing development in the GOM heading to Houston

[GCANE]

[aspen]

ICON showing development in the GOM heading to Houston

Looks like this area snaps, with one half getting dragged out to sea by a front and the other half making it into the Gulf. We’ll need to watch closely to see if that happens, because then there would be the chance for two systems to develop, one of which will be a land impact.

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southeast Georgia is
expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline
later this evening. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the
weekend and into early next week while the system drifts slowly
offshore of the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

[captainbarbossa19]

ICON showing development in the GOM heading to Houston

Looks like this area snaps, with one half getting dragged out to sea by a front and the other half making it into the Gulf. We’ll need to watch closely to see if that happens, because then there would be the chance for two systems to develop, one of which will be a land impact.

This setup is a lot like Edouard in 2008. Need to watch and see if something develops.

[Nimbus]

A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION EAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 29.5N 78.5W FOR 24/1800Z.

So the front may be digging a little further south before the shear lets up.
30% probably covers development chances for a broader location other than just at the red X.

[AlphaToOmega]

The global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON) show a storm coming off the East Coast and heading out to sea. They also show a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, it is safe to say that the low will split into two systems within the next few days. They will likely develop into Tropical Storms Fred and Grace.

[Jr0d]

I don't think it is safe to say the front will split into two systems.

The Atlantic side is showing an elongated low, so that may not be a tropical system or even sub-tropical.

The energy that makes it to the gulf is far from certain either. So far the NHC is it mentioning the area of the SE coast for development, and nothing for the gulf...and only 30%....though I have a feeling Stewart will up the odds Tonite.

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located near the coasts of southeast
Georgia and southern South Carolina is expected to move offshore
tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into
early next week while the system drifts slowly offshore of the
southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Category5Kaiju]

If something happens and we actually manage to get a Fred and a Grace by this month's end, I am going to eat my old sweater.

[AnnularCane]

If something happens and we actually manage to get a Fred and a Grace by this month's end, I am going to eat my old sweater.

Well, if you season it just right, it might not be so bad. Although I imagine it would be pretty chewy.

[OuterBanker]

No model is making much of this. Until we have a low that closes off no model will do well. Euro and Canadian are showing a small spin up that becomes an elongated low along the se coast. Gfs splits energy after a small spin up with one split into gulf. Again no model shows any real tropical development. I would think that the recon would be canceled if no low develops. But, a word of caution. A few years ago a low developed off the coast and went from tropical depression to cat two in 36 hrs.

[Category5Kaiju]

In recent years at least, I do think that the Gulf Stream has really boosted the ability of many of these systems to form, albeit short lived or weak. We’ll see what happens though, but given the recent year occurrences, nothing would really surprise me.

[AtlanticWind]

Systems have seemed to over perform the models so far this year, we will see if this continues with this one.

[fci]

The global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON) show a storm coming off the East Coast and heading out to sea. They also show a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, it is safe to say that the low will split into two systems within the next few days. They will likely develop into Tropical Storms Fred and Grace.

Such a shame that the G storm isn’t named Ginger.

[Category5Kaiju]

The global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON) show a storm coming off the East Coast and heading out to sea. They also show a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, it is safe to say that the low will split into two systems within the next few days. They will likely develop into Tropical Storms Fred and Grace.

Such a shame that the G storm isn’t named Ginger.

Ginger? You mean the 1971 hurricane, the plant root, or Ginger Zee the meteorologist?

[itglobalsecure]

Such a shame that the G storm isn’t named Ginger.

So true. What an opportunity missed!

[AtlanticWind]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coasts of
southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development over the weekend and into early next week while the
system drifts offshore of the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.