2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[abajan]

It is staying south of the SAL, so that helps. But that also means it is caught up in the ITCZ.

https://i.imgur.com/lmvFcnA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Hpw4kKB.png

Uh huh. I think some made the same observation about 97L which eventually became Elsa. Then again, conditions were more favorable during that period.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 34W and south of
21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from 06N to 12N
between 29W and 35W.

[Nimbus]

Its far enough south to pull moisture from the ITCZ the way Elsa did.
Could dry up mid Atlantic, that is probably why they haven't made it an invest yet.

[abajan]

Its far enough south to pull moisture from the ITCZ the way Elsa did.
Could dry up mid Atlantic, that is probably why they haven't made it an invest yet.

If it acquires a surface low, they might give it a 10% chance at development.

[cycloneye]

Convection has decreased a little bit.

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W and south
of 21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection, likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from
07N to 11N between 25W and 32W.

[abajan]

Convection has decreased a little bit.

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W and south
of 21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection, likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from
07N to 11N between 25W and 32W.

https://i.imgur.com/aasiSRJ.png

Yes but it seems the convection to its east is slowly catching up with it and they just might merge at some point.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of
19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from 07N to 12N
between 28W and 39W.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS:

The day with the highest chance for periods of showers
and thunderstorms is Sunday as a tropical wave and associated
moisture interacts with a trough aloft. Urban and small stream
flooding is likely with the heaviest showers

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46W, south of
19N, moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 08N to 12N between 42W and 48W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 54W, south of 19N,
moving W near 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident along the ITCZ south of 12N between 40W and 53W. A broad
area of Saharan Air accompanies this wave, extending from 12N to
24N from 60W to beyond 40W.

[ouragans]

8PM TWD

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 56W, from 04N to 19N, moving W 10 to 15 kt, approaching the Lesser Antilles. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 20N between the wave axis and the Leeward Islands. Patches of Saharan dust are following the tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A Caribbean tropical wave extends from the Atlantic waters north
of Puerto Rico near 22N66W to 10N63W, moving W near 20 kt.
Overnight scatterometer data and recent surface observations
indicate a sharp surface trough associated with this wave and have
required a repositioning farther to the W. A broad area of Saharan
Air and a low level wind surge accompany this wave. Scattered
squalls and thunderstorms have developed overnight between the
islands of the NE Caribbean and 23N as the wave has interacted
with an upper level low center to the north of Hispaniola. Other
scattered showers and squalls extend south and southeastward
across the Lesser Antilles and across the tropical Atlantic to
13N58W.

[abajan]

This wave has definitely been repositioned westward. Otherwise it would've had to have accelerated considerably for its axis to move from the position shown on the 0z surface pressure analysis chart to that shown on the 6z one.

[boca]

This tropical wave looks pretty healthy on the satellite pics this morning and I’m keeping an eye on this one.

[Stormybajan]

This wave has definitely been repositioned westward. Otherwise it would've had to have accelerated considerably for its axis to move from the position shown on the 0z surface pressure analysis chart to that shown on the 6z one.

I thought this particular wave was the one just east of us right now at 55W (please dont dissipate)

[abajan]

This wave has definitely been repositioned westward. Otherwise it would've had to have accelerated considerably for its axis to move from the position shown on the 0z surface pressure analysis chart to that shown on the 6z one.

I thought this particular wave was the one just east of us right now at 55W (please dont dissipate)

No, the wave axis has already passed. But there's a trough around 55W that's approaching. I imagine the instability created by the wave/trof combination should spark off some showers and the odd thunderstorm, especially this afternoon. But we'll see how it unfolds.

[cycloneye]

By the way abajan, there is not another wave all the way to Africa right now.

[abajan]

By the way abajan, there is not another wave all the way to Africa right now.

So I've been noticing for the last couple days. It'll be a completely different story come August, though!

[cycloneye]

Wave axis is now over PR according to the 12z surface analysis and took off the small trough that was at 06z east of Barbados.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from N of Puerto Rico at 22N
southward and moving W near 20 kt. Latest VIS and scatterometer
satellite imagery reveals residual Saharan Dry Air and a trade-
wind wind surge accompanying this wave. Enhanced by divergent
winds aloft, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
occurring across the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands between 56W and 70W. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are seen farther N from 19N to 12N
between 61W and 66W.