2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[weeniepatrol]

mid July moment. Just over a month remaining for the ringing of the bell

[AnnularCane]

Convection has significantly eroded due to SAL....

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM Fri Jul 16 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 22N southward and
moving W at 10 knots. Convection previously associated with this
wave has diminished, partially due to dry and dusty Saharan Air
Layer present in the vicinity.

Awww, poor little Sudan wave.

[AnnularCane]

:uarrow: mid July moment. Just over a month remaining for the ringing of the bell

Yeah...just need to locate one.

[abajan]

According to the 06z Surface Pressure Analysis, the wave has advanced to 40W.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM Mon Jul 19 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 40W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is moving
through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep
convective precipitation is associated with it.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 20N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave since it is under strong subsidence aloft.

[cycloneye]

I am making this thread for the incipient wave that is in the Eastern Atlantic. Conditions are not going to be favorable for it to develop as the dry MJO is in the Atlantic but it may bring good rains to the Islands of the Eastern Caribbean by next weekend.

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is likely along 22W/23W from 15N southward. The
Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave
that should be added to the next surface analysis at 0000 UTC.
The Tropical Wave Diagnostics and the TPW also support the
presence of the wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 09N- 12N between 22W-26W.

[abajan]

I just saw a message from fellow member of a Facebook weather group alerting me about this. It's interesting, despite conditions still being quite hostile for cyclogenesis.

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The Hovmoller Diagram has
been showing the westward propagation of the wave. The Tropical
Wave Diagnostics and the TPW also support the presence of the
wave. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from the monsoon trough to 16N within 300
nm on either side of the tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W and
south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted across the southern portion of the wave south of 10N
between 22W-31W.

[aspen]

This might bear watching to see if it makes it into the Caribbean or north of the Greater Antilles when the suppressive CCKW has moved out of that region.

[CFLHurricane]

What a vigorous swirl on the MMIC-TPW! Too bad it’s not meant to be.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W and south of
21N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 11N between 25W and 30W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W and south
of 21N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 07N to 11N
between 26W and 31W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along30 and south of
21N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 07N to 11N
between 28W and 34W.

[eastcoastFL]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along30 and south of
21N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 07N to 11N
between 28W and 34W.

https://i.imgur.com/JX1pn0f.png

https://i.imgur.com/fGDBNMP.png

Looks decent, better than it did the past two days. It may have a chance down the road.

[eastcoastFL]

[xironman]

It is staying south of the SAL, so that helps. But that also means it is caught up in the ITCZ.

[AutoPenalti]

It hasn't poofed, so it's something.

[cycloneye]

Is a high amplitud wave despite the sal to it's north. 12z surface analysis.

[Stormybajan]

Is a high amplitud wave despite the sal to it's north. 12z surface analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/xnRGhv8.jpg

Hopefully by the time it reaches the islands theres SOMETHING left of it as its extremely dry and hot in the islands right now