NW Gulf

[Stormcenter]

What’s with the mess in the NW Gulf this morning?

[RBDnhm]

Radar loops sure look odd over Galveston.

[Cpv17]

Radar loops sure look odd over Galveston.

It’ll be an area to watch. Stalled out frontal boundary.

[underthwx]

Radar loops sure look odd over Galveston.

It’ll be an area to watch. Stalled out frontal boundary.

True that...stalled frontal boundaries this time of year can be troublesome....in my neck of the woods, we have had a couple inches or so overnight...

[jaguars_22]

Some of the models have been showing a low pressure just sitting half on the coast half off. I wonder if something could get going in this area? Where would a low pressure likely move if it was to surprise us

[underthwx]

Some of the models have been showing a low pressure just sitting half on the coast half off. I wonder if something could get going in this area? Where would a low pressure likely move if it was to surprise us

I'm guessing if anything tried to get going, the proximity to land would not allow much organization?

[jaguars_22]

I guess this low pressure will be stalled out for a while which could be bad for some areas. Doesn’t take a Hurricane to cause deadly weather! I believe the cmc model showed 30 inches for this area of Texas for a few runs now

[wxman22]

Many of the mesoscale models this morning are forming a depression like system along the coast in a couple of days.

[Frank P]

Possible circulation forming in extreme western gulf, very evident via the long range vis sat images from GOES. Not sure if will hold up or go poof later tonight but still interesting little swirl.

[lrak]

Really cool on satellite. Looks like it's right along the coast near Baffin Bay. The NAM shows a nice spin for a couple of days right over S Texas.

[jaguars_22]

Could be the start of a homegrown system. Whatever forms us in the mid to lower coast will get a lot of rain! Some models show the low moving south and some show it moving north… ex nam

[ChrisH-UK]

The system produced 40 mph winds and thunderstorms yesterday when it entered the gulf at South Padre Island. The models have it coming back in to Texas south of Corpus Christi with winds up to 50 mph in about 6 hours time by the looks of the models and multipule models shows it to be a cyclonic system either on land fall or just after, a potential pop Tropical Storm. The latest 6z GFS and ECWMF also show it but with 20-30 mph winds

850mb Winds HRR Model


10m Winds HRR Model

[Blinhart]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this spin up real fast and become a named storm.

[AlphaToOmega]

From the Tropical Weather Discussion:

As of 07/0900 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed just inland
the Texas coast, with a 1008 mb low near 28N98W. Increasing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
from 24N to 28N west of 92W. Overnight ASCAT data indicated gentle
to moderate south-southeast winds near this trough and elsewhere
over the western Gulf west of 90W. An upper-level trough shifting
south- southeast with time over northeastern Mexico is supporting
an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
22N to 24N west of 95W to within 80 nm inland the coast of Mexico.
Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds continue over the central
and western Gulf, with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range due to a
southeast swell.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1412787516621656068

[AlphaToOmega]

This might become an area of interest, but that seems unlikely at the moment given the lack of global model support.

[jaguars_22]

I believe this one doesn’t have a chance because it’s too far inland. However could another low spin up offshore?

[AlphaToOmega]

I believe this one doesn’t have a chance because it’s too far inland. However could another low spin up offshore?

Tropical cyclones can form inland (eg Tropical Storm Julia (2016))

[AnnularCane]

I believe this one doesn’t have a chance because it’s too far inland. However could another low spin up offshore?

Tropical cyclones can form inland (eg Tropical Storm Julia (2016))

And possibly Claudette.

[jaguars_22]

It’s just weird looking because there’s not so much moisture on the east side and not much on west. Typical I guess… why is this so lopsided?