ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

Latest shear analysis shows the reduction in shear.
https://i.imgur.com/vFfUY8I.png

That is bad news for anyone who lives in Florida (Tampa Bay area especially).

[SunnyThoughts]

Very interested in seeing what the Hurricane Hunters find. That eye/eyelike feature looks to be much better organized that earlier.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I may have to listen to opera music based on that look of the storm

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://imgur.com/a/7IoIkOb
https://i.imgur.com/LwHCaQv.png

Well this was more impressive than I was expecting! And Irma was stronger in terms of winds for Tampa Bay but the surge may be worse because winds will be onshore this time. Very interested to see what recon finds.

Well, that's impressive.

[SconnieCane]

I was mighty confused by some of the earlier comparisons to Eta (2020). I had that storm in my mind as a Cat. 4 into Nicaragua and then dead. Totally forgot it pulled a Mitch and came back up to FL as a TS.

[johngaltfla]

And of course, some of my less enlightened neighbors didn't listen and their crap is flying down the street already....a full 2+ hours before the heavy winds get here. Folks, secure your things. A tropical storm can fling dangerous objects as well as a hurricane when the gusts top 70 mph.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[johngaltfla]

saved loop
https://imgur.com/HPHk7QD

She looks hungry for more warm water and a vibrant DMAX. Not good for Pinellas on north.

[HurricaneBelle]

And of course, some of my less enlightened neighbors didn't listen and their crap is flying down the street already....a full 2+ hours before the heavy winds get here. Folks, secure your things. A tropical storm can fling dangerous objects as well as a hurricane when the gusts top 70 mph.

One of our local realtors planted little flags on sticks in front of every house in our neighborhood for July 4 and driving around earlier today it looked like at least 50% of them were still out by the street.

[gatorcane]

Best Elsa has looked since she was a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean. Looks like the shear has relaxed and she is taking advantage.

[TallyTracker]

That’s one of the more bizarre radar presentations I’ve seen with an oval eye due to the shear. Does look like it may be a hurricane now.

[Evenstar]

I may have to listen to opera music based on that look of the storm

If I've learned anything whilst hanging around Storm2k, it's that you don't make bets ('cuz storms don't play fair) and you don't talk smack about the NHC.
(Not suggesting you've talked smack...)

[artist]

Recon about half way there

[Frank P]

Looks like a hurricane to me on both radar and sat and going to surge a lot of water in Tampa Bay!

[fllawyer]

Seen it alluded to, but the occurrence of basically back-to-back-to-back high tides beginning with a high tide Wednesday at 230am of +1.8, a “low” tide of +1.6 at 7am, and culminating in a quite high tide of +2.8 at 12:35pm will not bode well for when Elsa passes and wind turns to onshore flow.

[johngaltfla]

And of course, some of my less enlightened neighbors didn't listen and their crap is flying down the street already....a full 2+ hours before the heavy winds get here. Folks, secure your things. A tropical storm can fling dangerous objects as well as a hurricane when the gusts top 70 mph.

One of our local realtors planted little flags on sticks in front of every house in our neighborhood for July 4 and driving around earlier today it looked like at least 50% of them were still out by the street.

And that's why all of these new folks in Florida look forward to the "adventure" and do not understand nor respect just how dangerous a Cat 1 is. During Michelle, I had a bedroom window blow out requiring a mid-storm hurried redneck improvised repair until the winds calmed down.

Hopefully some of the new residents are paying attention.

[igoldfish]

Just inland from Fort Myers Beach. Been a complete non-event here, all day. Very grateful to have dodged a getting-more-serious bullet. Reminds me of watching Charley go by until it made that awful turn to the East. Good luck to my northern neighbors

[Sanibel]

Exhibiting signs of hurricane...Eyewall-like feature more defined...

[GrayLancer18]

Latest shear analysis shows the reduction in shear.
https://i.imgur.com/vFfUY8I.png

Levi mentioned it in one of his videos. Neutral shear (around 20kts) is enough to keep it from RI but not enough to shred Elsa, so there is space from some slow development.
C1 hurricane is doable.

[caneman]

Hopefully this will once and for all quiet the people that year after year mock and downplay these Northward heading sheared type storms towards Florida's west coast. Many times the shear will actually aid or not kill off a system because the storm is moving with the shear. I've lived on the West coast of Florida since 1976, and I'll take first hand experience over prognosticators any day