ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Just lost power in Key West..flickered a few times before it finally went. I have a feeling this a major outage. At least I have a couple of power banks to keep the phones charged.

I might have jinxed you, sorry about that. Looks like they’re restoring it quick. The 2400 earlier is down to 1400

[eastcoastFL]

[chaser1]

Pretty good wind at Key West past hour 38 gusting 61 kts. Max sustained winds still look like they're in the 45-50 kt range. On a side note, I'm about to issue an intermediate advisory on Elsa. When making a graphic, the PowerPoint deck I use to edit the images had my first track from last Wednesday, the day before the NHC issued advisories. It was only an invest at the time. Might have had some stronger wind at one point in the Caribbean. Gulf winds 50 kts. Landfall north of Tampa same time as currently predicted. That's the standard I've set for all my 7-day forecasts this season.

http://wxman57.com/images/FirstForecast.JPG

I'd call that pretty damn close to "nailing it"

[eastcoastFL]

Storms are now covering the entire southwest coast from about naples to the keys

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

[Jr0d]

Just lost power in Key West..flickered a few times before it finally went. I have a feeling this a major outage. At least I have a couple of power banks to keep the phones charged.

I might have jinxed you, sorry about that. Looks like they’re restoring it quick. The 2400 earlier is down to 1400

This just happened a few minutes ago ..likely not updated yet. We are on one of the better grids, usually when we lose power it is island wide. It makes me wonder if a main line between here and the 7 mile bridge went down. At least the weather has improved slightly.

Edit...

They just updated it, it is a local outage in the 'midtown' area.

[eastcoastFL]

Just lost power in Key West..flickered a few times before it finally went. I have a feeling this a major outage. At least I have a couple of power banks to keep the phones charged.

I might have jinxed you, sorry about that. Looks like they’re restoring it quick. The 2400 earlier is down to 1400

This just happened a few minutes ago ..likely not updated yet. We are on one of the better grids, usually when we lose power it is island wide. It makes me wonder if a main line between here and the 7 mile bridge went down. At least the weather has improved slightly.

You’re right. This last updated at 12:35

[tolakram]

I don't see much improvement, but at least Elsa looks like your standard sheared storm.

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=977&y=1257&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

200 frame loop from COD
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

So far 56 knot winds by SFMR in the northern quadrant.

F302 1305A ELSA HDOB 12 20210706
164700 2552N 08310W 8429 01587 0128 +161 +058 097044 045 036 001 00
164730 2550N 08310W 8429 01585 0131 +150 +057 096046 049 039 001 00
164800 2549N 08310W 8428 01584 0129 +150 +059 098048 050 039 001 00
164830 2547N 08309W 8415 01590 0131 +144 +056 097048 050 040 002 00
164900 2546N 08309W 8434 01577 0126 +149 +060 092050 051 040 001 00
164930 2544N 08309W 8426 01583 0120 +157 +060 091050 051 041 001 00
165000 2543N 08309W 8434 01571 0112 +165 +058 089049 050 042 000 00
165030 2541N 08309W 8428 01573 0107 +168 +057 086050 053 043 001 00
165100 2540N 08309W 8435 01565 0108 +165 +060 085050 051 045 001 00
165130 2538N 08308W 8430 01568 0107 +160 +057 083051 052 046 001 00
165200 2537N 08308W 8429 01567 0104 +160 +059 082052 053 047 002 00
165230 2535N 08308W 8430 01562 0101 +161 +058 087053 055 048 000 03
165300 2533N 08308W 8425 01563 0095 +163 +058 087053 055 050 002 00
165330 2532N 08308W 8436 01551 0087 +174 +056 084048 051 051 002 00
165400 2530N 08308W 8425 01560 0079 +181 +058 080041 046 052 003 00
165430 2529N 08307W 8437 01545 0071 +190 +059 071036 039 052 004 00
165500 2527N 08307W 8429 01550 0070 +186 +062 064042 046 054 005 03
165530 2525N 08307W 8431 01548 0083 +162 +060 061051 052 053 006 03
165600 2524N 08306W 8428 01546 0077 +165 +057 059054 056 055 004 00
165630 2522N 08306W 8432 01538 0066 +169 +058 059052 055 056 002 00
$$

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa’s outflow is reaching me here in north GA now

[chaser1]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

[galaxy401]

Elsa definitely seems to be stronger than last night. I was surprised when I woke up that they raised the landfall intensity but it does make sense.

[DestinHurricane]

On radar its clear the "eyewall" keeps trying to wrap but keeps getting pushed back by the shear. I agree with wxman here, no hurricane probably some decent gusts on west coast of Florida.

[HurricaneBelle]

Right now a rogue storm moving NW across upper Tampa Bay is aimed right at me in Safety Harbor.

[NDG]

[caneman]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

Right where I live. Largo-Indian Rocks. Expecting to lose power. Been there done that. 13 days combined with Frances and Jeanne and 6 days for Irma

[psyclone]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

I'm gonna have to veto that...although it is possible. Here's another possibility...It leans right and ducks in south of the bay...Like Gabby 01 did..leaving Pinellas and points north with nothing. when a storm is running parallel to the coast, the slightest change in heading can lead to a vastly different outcome

[StormPyrate]

As I see it, the apparent MLC is begrudgingly moving essentially to the north and is limiting the west tilted LLC from gaining significant westward motion. Whether "landfall" actually occurs around Largo/Clearwater as I believe, I have to think that if max winds increase to near hurricane force.... those conditions (sustained or in gusts) are most apt to occur between Largo & Clearwater. I think here is where we'll see Elsa's track begin to nudge NNE.

Just up the road in Clearwater, plan to sit on the lanai and watch it trash the pool

Right where I live. Largo-Indian Rocks. Expecting to lose power. Been there done that. 13 days combined with Frances and Jeanne and 6 days for Irma

[drezee]

She is 999 mb...per recon

[Nuno]

When are people going to stop doubting storms in the Gulf approaching the Florida coast?