ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Keys energy reporting 2,842 outages…hope Jrod isn’t one of them

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

[Cat5James]

If I didn’t know better I’d say it’s going due N or NNNNE

The track from this point forward is basically due North until it reaches the big bend area... can see the outter edges of convection moving into Miami Dade now

[chaser1]

If this system gets much more sheared my region may end up with a center passing to the west and the convection passing to the east. That would be hilarious.

So you think your regions impact from Elsa will be little more then a "moat" point? (I know - I know... pretty bad pun )

[eastcoastFL]

If I didn’t know better I’d say it’s going due N or NNNNE

The track from this point forward is basically due North until it reaches the big bend area... can see the outter edges of convection moving into Miami Dade now

You’re right. On SFWMD you can see the track was showing NNW earlier and then at the end of the loop it shifts due N and pretty much scrapes the Tampa area

[Cat5James]

If I didn’t know better I’d say it’s going due N or NNNNE

The track from this point forward is basically due North until it reaches the big bend area... can see the outter edges of convection moving into Miami Dade now

You’re right. On SFWMD you can see the track was showing NNW earlier and then at the end of the loop it shifts due N and pretty much scrapes the Tampa area

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

If the ridge weakens early or Elsa becomes stronger then expected could see that NE turn earlier then currently projected. At this point we just watch in real time.

[psyclone]

If this system gets much more sheared my region may end up with a center passing to the west and the convection passing to the east. That would be hilarious.

So you think your regions impact from Elsa will be little more then a "moat" point? (I know - I know... pretty bad pun )

The pseudo half eyewall has now gained enough longitude to be due south of my area so I'm getting more confident it may rain here.

[wxman57]

Pretty good wind at Key West past hour 38 gusting 61 kts. Max sustained winds still look like they're in the 45-50 kt range. On a side note, I'm about to issue an intermediate advisory on Elsa. When making a graphic, the PowerPoint deck I use to edit the images had my first track from last Wednesday, the day before the NHC issued advisories. It was only an invest at the time. Might have had some stronger wind at one point in the Caribbean. Gulf winds 50 kts. Landfall north of Tampa same time as currently predicted. That's the standard I've set for all my 7-day forecasts this season.

[wxhorse]

UF just cancelled classes and closed for tomorrow.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[NDG]

Key West international reporting 44mph winds gust to 70mph

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... OR-zy33ahA

I am still mind boggled of almost hurricane force wind gusts with a surface pressure of 1014mb

[Jr0d]

Keys energy reporting 2,842 outages…hope Jrod isn’t one of them

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

Still got power for now.

70mph gust reported at the Key West airport. Still nasty out, seems like there is a clear spot a few miles west but we have been getting the train effect here.

[jdray]

Elsa building up an impressive eye wall. Too bad it’s tilted(really a good thing just I like beautiful Eyewalls.)

You can still appreciate a perfect eyewall even if the storm is really bad. Mother nature is both beautiful and deadly. Wilma and Igor have beautiful eyewalls.

[Vdogg]

Key West international reporting 44mph winds gust to 70mph

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... OR-zy33ahA

I am still mind boggled of almost hurricane force wind gusts with a surface pressure of 1014mb

I think that surface pressure is probably much lower now. Just need recon to confirm.

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty good wind at Key West past hour 38 gusting 61 kts. Max sustained winds still look like they're in the 45-50 kt range. On a side note, I'm about to issue an intermediate advisory on Elsa. When making a graphic, the PowerPoint deck I use to edit the images had my first track from last Wednesday, the day before the NHC issued advisories. It was only an invest at the time. Might have had some stronger wind at one point in the Caribbean. Gulf winds 50 kts. Landfall north of Tampa same time as currently predicted. That's the standard I've set for all my 7-day forecasts this season.

http://wxman57.com/images/FirstForecast.JPG

That is pretty freakin awesome. Thank you for sharing that!

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa seems to be trying to pull its LLC under the convection, I might jinx it again by saying this, but it looks like it's making a run for hurricane yet again.

[eastcoastFL]

Keys energy reporting 2,842 outages…hope Jrod isn’t one of them

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

Still got power for now.

70mph gust reported at the Key West airport. Still nasty out, seems like there is a clear spot a few miles west but we have been getting the train effect here.

Glad to see the power is still on. Looks like things should clear up for you by tonight unless Elsa continues to drag that mess from south of Cuba north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC's Philippe Papin is also seeing an increase in organization.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1412448783351390213

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is the current best track data for Elsa:

AL, 05, 2021062812, , BEST, 0, 80N, 284W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021062818, , BEST, 0, 80N, 300W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021062900, , BEST, 0, 80N, 316W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021062906, , BEST, 0, 80N, 332W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021062912, , BEST, 0, 80N, 348W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al712021 to al972021,
AL, 05, 2021062918, , BEST, 0, 80N, 360W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021063000, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021063006, , BEST, 0, 86N, 393W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021063012, , BEST, 0, 90N, 411W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021063018, , BEST, 0, 94N, 428W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, TRANSITIONED, alA72021 to al052021,
AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 453W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070106, , BEST, 0, 94N, 477W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 90, 1012, 180, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070112, , BEST, 0, 99N, 502W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 0, 80, 1012, 180, 60, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070118, , BEST, 0, 107N, 526W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 0, 80, 1011, 180, 60, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070200, , BEST, 0, 114N, 547W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 110, 1012, 180, 50, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 180, 30, 0, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 573W, 50, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 110, 1012, 180, 40, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 75, 0, 75, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 573W, 50, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 40, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 75, 0, 75, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070212, , BEST, 0, 130N, 598W, 65, 995, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 110, 1012, 140, 20, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 240, 120, 30, 90, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070212, , BEST, 0, 130N, 598W, 65, 995, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 140, 20, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 240, 120, 30, 90, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070212, , BEST, 0, 130N, 598W, 65, 995, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 140, 20, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 240, 120, 30, 90, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070218, , BEST, 0, 138N, 624W, 75, 991, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 30, 110, 1012, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070218, , BEST, 0, 138N, 624W, 75, 991, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070218, , BEST, 0, 138N, 624W, 75, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070300, , BEST, 0, 145N, 651W, 70, 995, HU, 34, NEQ, 130, 120, 30, 120, 1012, 140, 15, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070300, , BEST, 0, 145N, 651W, 70, 995, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 140, 15, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070300, , BEST, 0, 145N, 651W, 70, 995, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 140, 15, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 679W, 65, 998, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 30, 100, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 679W, 65, 998, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 679W, 65, 998, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 30, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070312, , BEST, 0, 166N, 703W, 65, 999, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 30, 100, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 60, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070312, , BEST, 0, 166N, 703W, 65, 999, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 60, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070312, , BEST, 0, 166N, 703W, 65, 999, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 15, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 60, 120, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070318, , BEST, 0, 173N, 727W, 60, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 30, 100, 1011, 140, 30, 75, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 60, 90, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070318, , BEST, 0, 173N, 727W, 60, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 140, 30, 75, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 60, 90, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070400, , BEST, 0, 176N, 744W, 55, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 30, 100, 1011, 140, 25, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070400, , BEST, 0, 176N, 744W, 55, 1004, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 140, 25, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070406, , BEST, 0, 180N, 755W, 55, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 100, 1010, 100, 20, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070406, , BEST, 0, 180N, 755W, 55, 1006, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1010, 100, 20, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070412, , BEST, 0, 185N, 765W, 50, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 40, 100, 1011, 90, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 75, 105, 60, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070412, , BEST, 0, 185N, 765W, 50, 1008, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 90, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 75, 105, 60, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070418, , BEST, 0, 193N, 776W, 50, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 40, 80, 1013, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070418, , BEST, 0, 193N, 776W, 50, 1007, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1013, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070500, , BEST, 0, 201N, 786W, 55, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 20, 70, 1013, 90, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 90, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070500, , BEST, 0, 201N, 786W, 55, 1005, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 20, 1013, 90, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 90, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070506, , BEST, 0, 207N, 796W, 55, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 50, 1012, 110, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070506, , BEST, 0, 207N, 796W, 55, 1004, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 110, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 808W, 55, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 50, 1012, 100, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 808W, 55, 1006, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070518, , BEST, 0, 221N, 815W, 50, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 50, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070518, , BEST, 0, 221N, 815W, 50, 1007, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070600, , BEST, 0, 229N, 820W, 50, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 0, 50, 1013, 90, 15, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070600, , BEST, 0, 229N, 820W, 50, 1007, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 15, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070606, , BEST, 0, 237N, 823W, 50, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 50, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070606, , BEST, 0, 237N, 823W, 50, 1007, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070612, , BEST, 0, 244N, 826W, 50, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 50, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070612, , BEST, 0, 244N, 826W, 50, 1007, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 15, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, D, 12, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, genesis-num, 010,

One this is for sure: this is definitely going to kept as a hurricane in the TCR. From what I have seen, the NHC never changes the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots (not including HURDAT reanalysis). The peak intensity of Elsa was 75 knots; that means the TCR will have the peak intensity of Elsa at 70-80 knots.

[Jr0d]

Just lost power in Key West..flickered a few times before it finally went. I have a feeling this a major outage. At least I have a couple of power banks to keep the phones charged.

[psyclone]

NHC's Philippe Papin is also seeing an increase in organization.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1412448783351390213

It does look better and the new formative feederband curving on the southeast side might continue that trend if it can keep going.

[Stormybajan]

Wouldnt be shocking to me if recon finds a 65-70 mph storm with a 1002 mb pressure