- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...
What will July end with?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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AlphaToOmega
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What will July end with?
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CFLHurricane
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Re: What will July end with?
AlphaToOmega wrote:- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...
Probably only getting to Grace this month, if that.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
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Iceresistance
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Re: What will July end with?
AlphaToOmega wrote:- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...
Between Grace & Ida for sure
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: What will July end with?
I think we will get a subtropical storm in mid-July (Fred). There were two storms of tropical origin in June (Claudette and Elsa (wave formed in June)). I think we could see two or three storms of tropical origin form in late July, bringing us to Henri or Ida.
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Re: What will July end with?
Probably Fred or Grace. I don’t anticipate any more activity for the middle portion of July when the suppressive CCKW is in place, but late month could spark at least one MDR system.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: What will July end with?
I'm feeling "Grace" will be the final named storm to form in July, and also be the first formidable hurricane to pose a significant threat to the Antilles or Carribbean region.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: What will July end with?
For sure... The 31st... But I think the G storm is a possibility...
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Re: What will July end with?
July 31st. LMAO
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: What will July end with?
I am thinking that we will end this month with Henri; however, maybe it's because I am superstitious (or IDK), but the name "Grace" for a possible TC is very ironic. Makes me want to believe that that might actually be a bad storm, but who knows?
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
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AnnularCane
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Re: What will July end with?
Larry.
J/k.
I will go with Grace. I could say Fred, but I'm allowing for something unexpected to pop up along with possible MDR development.
J/k.
I will go with Grace. I could say Fred, but I'm allowing for something unexpected to pop up along with possible MDR development.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: What will July end with?
Fred or Grace. The suppressive CCKW will limit development in the near future even though I think a messy TS could still form somewhere so that might be Fred. Grace could then be a more formidable storm or hurricane near the end of the month, perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far.
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Re: What will July end with?
I’m starting to think there’s a slim chance of July ending with Henri. Seems like July 20th onwards will have favorable VP anomalies for MDR/AEW cyclogenesis, which could be enough time to squeeze out more than one named storm. It’s also not impossible for something weak to spin up in a suppressive CCKW or MJO phase; just look at last year’s Dolly.
Henri has been one of those names that has been consistently used for weak, sloppy, and forgettable systems. Could 2021 finally change this with the name potentially being used in a positive CCKW phase in late July or August? Hermine was stuck in a similar situation for decades until 2016.
Edit: I forgot about Henry ‘79, which was a 75 kt Cat 1. But it still looked like slop. Also, The Perfect Storm technically wasn’t Henri even though it should’ve been named so.
Henri has been one of those names that has been consistently used for weak, sloppy, and forgettable systems. Could 2021 finally change this with the name potentially being used in a positive CCKW phase in late July or August? Hermine was stuck in a similar situation for decades until 2016.
Edit: I forgot about Henry ‘79, which was a 75 kt Cat 1. But it still looked like slop. Also, The Perfect Storm technically wasn’t Henri even though it should’ve been named so.
Last edited by aspen on Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: What will July end with?
Probably Fred or Grace, but the way this season has gone so far, I wouldn't really be surprised if we get to Henri.
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: What will July end with?
aspen wrote:I’m starting to think there’s a slim chance of July ending with Henri. Seems like July 20th onwards will have favorable VP anomalies for MDR/AEW cyclogenesis, which could be enough time to squeeze out more than one named storm. It’s also not impossible for something weak to spin up in a suppressive CCKW or MJO phase; just look at last year’s Dolly.
Henri has been one of those names that has been consistently used for weak, sloppy, and forgettable systems. Could 2021 finally change this with the name potentially being used in a positive CCKW phase in late July or August? Hermine was stuck in a similar situation for decades until 2016.
Edit: I forgot about Henry ‘79, which was a 75 kt Cat 1. But it still looked like slop. Also, The Perfect Storm technically wasn’t Henri even though it should’ve been named so.
I actually kind of want to see Henri retired and replaced with Hans.
Especially since we'll likely see Elsa again in 2027, unless Barbados thinks the unexpected hurricane damage was bad enough.
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Shell Mound
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Re: What will July end with?
hcane27 wrote:Elsa
This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: What will July end with?
Shell Mound wrote:hcane27 wrote:Elsa
This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).
Maybe prescience would be a better term .....
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Shell Mound
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Re: What will July end with?
hcane27 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:hcane27 wrote:Elsa
This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).
Maybe prescience would be a better term .....
Climatology is very prescient.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: What will July end with?
Elsa was a rare *lucky* storm that was low latitude and stayed connected to the ITCZ moisture for most of its journey west maybe no harbinger for August.
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