ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Ha. I had no clue he was ozonepete. I guess he has his hands full with Twitter and knows his stuff will get posted here anyhow by someone. I miss the old bunch but we have plenty of good folks who have been around for a while and some new ones as well.

I believe Derek Ortt was Alyono if I'm not mistaken.

Guess it wasn’t much of a secret. I really used to enjoy Watkins posts and forecasts. They were very helpful and detailed.

yes Alonyo that’s right i remember now thanks hammy

[eastcoastFL]

OK< besides my moaning this plight, a REAL question: Can anyone give a somewhat accurate forecast of where the messy central mass will LIKELY arrive on the coast? Appalachicola? Steinhatchee? Levy? DIxie? (Cedar Key). Thanks, I realize its a guessing game but we ARE getting close.

The NHC track has been the most accurate so far, why think something else is going to be more accurate? As we've seen many times, the closer it gets the more wobbles mean something, but I doubt the track moves much unless the models suddenly all shift.

The last 2 cycles were Dixie county. If it bumps east back to Levy...that will be where we were a day ago. The NHC gets an A+ for track forecasting on this storm so they get deserved credit. They haven't budged very much at all

Besides the freakish hurricane upgrade over Barbados they’ve nailed down the intensity as well.

[tropicwatch]

From last dropsonde message:
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 0:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 05

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 6th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb
Coordinates: 23.9N 83.0W
Location: 68 statute miles (109 km) to the NW (324°) from Havana, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 081

[robbielyn]

I believe Derek Ortt was Alyono if I'm not mistaken.

Guess it wasn’t much of a secret. I really used to enjoy Watkins posts and forecasts. They were very helpful and detailed.

yes Alonyo that’s right i remember now thanks hammy

yes east coast you hv been here a long time too and psyclone and gatorcane and cycloneye and abajan dean4storms and sanibel to mention a few.

[StAuggy]

https://i.imgur.com/g4NM14y.png

Center is either near, or just to the south west of, what appears to be a formative mid-level eyewall. If the shear doesn't increase in that time, this could organize fairly quickly in the 8-12h after emerging

I asked this question a couple pages back but the shear maps look wide open for negligible interference. I do realize that the shear maps are never a sure thing.

Edit:: looking back just now they have filled in with more yellow and red so I retract my statement. It would appear that there will certainly be enough shear around that it would hinder Elsa in one way or another. Earlier it was all green for most of its path

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/g4NM14y.png

Center is either near, or just to the south west of, what appears to be a formative mid-level eyewall. If the shear doesn't increase in that time, this could organize fairly quickly in the 8-12h after emerging

I asked this question a couple pages back but the shear maps look wide open for negligible interference. I do realize that the shear maps are never a sure thing.

Current shear analysis. 15-20kts our of the SW, reduced some due to storm motion.

[gatorcane]

OK< besides my moaning this plight, a REAL question: Can anyone give a somewhat accurate forecast of where the messy central mass will LIKELY arrive on the coast? Appalachicola? Steinhatchee? Levy? DIxie? (Cedar Key). Thanks, I realize its a guessing game but we ARE getting close.

The NHC track has been the most accurate so far, why think something else is going to be more accurate? As we've seen many times, the closer it gets the more wobbles mean something, but I doubt the track moves much unless the models suddenly all shift.

The last 2 cycles were Dixie county. If it bumps east back to Levy...that will be where we were a day ago. The NHC gets an A+ for track forecasting on this storm so they get deserved credit. They haven't budged very much at all

Agreed outstanding work by the NHC. You would never know how much uncertainty there was in the track after looking at this:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/E ... e_and_wind

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF301 has not reported in quite some time. They must be having transmission problems.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just recently looked at the mid level shear map (not the deep layer shear) and that seems to be very light.

[robbielyn]

Just recently looked at the mid level shear map (not the deep layer shear) and that seems to be very light.

Levi said 20kt wind sheer enough to keep elsa from strengthening too much. it will be coming out of the sw while she is going north.

[rigbyrigz]

9:30 PM Eastern Weather Channel "spurt" said "some of the models are showing Elsa regaining hurricane status". Wish he was more specific, but that jives right in with the reports here that she looks more formidable coming off of Cuba. I know the Gulf isn't 88F like it was near here when Irma blew up near shore time, but it's still in the 80's.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/g4NM14y.png

Center is either near, or just to the south west of, what appears to be a formative mid-level eyewall. If the shear doesn't increase in that time, this could organize fairly quickly in the 8-12h after emerging

I asked this question a couple pages back but the shear maps look wide open for negligible interference. I do realize that the shear maps are never a sure thing.

Edit:: looking back just now they have filled in with more yellow and red so I retract my statement. It would appear that there will certainly be enough shear around that it would hinder Elsa in one way or another. Earlier it was all green for most of its path

Yah it looks like about 20 knots of sheer for now. Hopefully just enough to keep it from getting ramped up before Florida landfall.

[ronjon]

Ok folks had to race back from our family vacation trip in Maryland. Been on the road most of the day. Trying to play catch up here. Both GFS and the Euro strengthen Elsa anywhere from 997 to 991 mb in the SE GOM. I'm thinking now a strong tropical storm or CAT 1 cane. Since I'm along the nature coast here on the coast, expecting surge similar to Hermine which flooded myself first story. Will be sand bagging and moving things up in the garage tomorrow as well as moving cars. Sheez, its too early in the season for this. Will report my conditions throughout the storm provided I don't lose power.

[Fancy1001]

What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying over the next 36 hours?

[eastcoastFL]

Ok folks had to race back from our family vacation trip in Maryland. Been on the road most of the day. Trying to play catch up here. Both GFS and the Euro strengthen Elsa anywhere from 997 to 991 mb in the SE GOM. I'm thinking now a strong tropical storm or CAT 1 cane. Since I'm along the nature coast here on the coast, expecting surge similar to Hermine which flooded myself first story. Will be sand bagging and moving things up in the garage tomorrow as well as moving cars. Sheez, its too early in the season for this. Will report my conditions throughout the storm provided I don't lose power.

Looking forward to the reports. Stay safe!

[eastcoastFL]

What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying over the next 36 hours?

I don’t think the conditions will be favorable for RI

[DestinHurricane]

15 knots of SW shear and if storm is moving NNE at 10 knots thats more like 5 or 6 knots of shear in reality.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has an eye like feature

[Spacecoast]

0z Intensity forecast (OFCL NHC appears to be similar to 18z):
0z:

18z:

[Aric Dunn]

Recon showing the center is pretty much right along the coast between Havana and Matanza. little closer to havana.

also FL winds 50+kts along the coast.