ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Decent band headed for the keys now

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Barely got any rain in Key West from this band. Heavier stuff to the north.

Added some extra lines to my boat yesterday...with the storm most likely passing west of us, our strongest winds will likely be south which my marina is well.protected from.

With the exception of no trash pick up and the city busses not running, it is business as usual.down.here and hotels are sold out. Dodged a bullet again....don't know what the city and county are going to if we have a storm the RIs before hitting us.

Glad to hear you will dodge another bullet. It’s going to be a long season and you guys stick out like a sore thumb for the tropics. Hopefully your luck stays solid the rest of the season.

[eastcoastFL]

Actually looking her best so far today as she approaches the coast. Must be those warm SST’s and the outer bands over the Fl straights helping to fuel her for the moment

[eastcoastFL]

[Prosepro]

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

Where can I find that resource? Am I missing a link? I don't see one.

Here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80

Great tool!
Funny, Debbie was one of the more memorable Tropical Storms around here and I had to go out over 100 miles for it to show up. So a storm doesn't have make a direct hit to have a lot of impact.

[cane5]

Am I in the twilight zone I could swear that Elsa looks like it’s shifting to a slant to the NE ?

Guess something is blowing those cloud tops off. No doubt we have seen a burst of clouds. Weather Channel just confirmed there is some dry air getting in the system which is what influenced the storm just a bit.
Also we might now finally see what the Fla straights are capable of should be interesting.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa really high pressure. wonder if it set a record for highest pressure for a 50knot Ts

[psyclone]

If Elsa develops a long, beefy convective band on its east side as it moves west of the peninsula, someone could really get firehosed on land. To me that's the real potential to watch. Such a set up could dump a ton of QPF and pile up water at the coast topped by significant wave action. Flooding, beach erosion/overwash and some svr wx (marine waterspouts, quick tornado spin ups on land) could leave a mark in some areas. It's a nowcast situation with a range of options from "not much" to "quite a bit more than we were expecting"...

[gatorcane]

A couple of the buoys in the lower and middle keys have reported close to 40mph wind gusts

Sand Key: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SANF1
Sombrero Key: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SMKF1

[eastcoastFL]

If Elsa develops a long, beefy convective band on its east side as it moves west of the peninsula, someone could really get firehosed on land. To me that's the real potential to watch. Such a set up could dump a ton of QPF and pile up water at the coast topped by significant wave action. Flooding, beach erosion/overwash and some svr wx (marine waterspouts, quick tornado spin ups on land) could leave a mark in some areas. It's a nowcast situation with a range of options from "not much" to "quite a bit more than we were expecting"...

Ive noticed the outer bands are really starting to beef up as they expand across the Florida straights.

[eastcoastFL]

A couple of the buoys in the lower and middle keys have reported close to 40mph wind gusts

Sand Key: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SANF1
Sombrero Key: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SMKF1

I’m looking at the water temps on those buoys and wow 84 degrees

[Steve H.]

Although not official, she seems to be heading a bit more north than she was before. Not confident in the track, but there is a tolerance on the cone.

[robbielyn]

Actually looking her best so far today as she approaches the coast. Must be those warm SST’s and the outer bands over the Fl straights helping to fuel her for the moment

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/84220122.gif?0.5573821131354737

Levi’s new video out. he said if not for cuba this could strengthen as it is looking like it’s wanting to wrap around the west side but it will weaken, then tomorrow the sw sheer will disrupt some and possible dry air entrainment will keep it in check but as it stays over water as it moves north it could strengthen a little bit.

[jlauderdal]

Meanwhile metro dade and broward will experience a light breeze and slight showers according to that graph.

Considering the current radar returns and what is heading towards the SE coast, that graph wont verify.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the center just over Cayo Largo

[cane5]

Just a quagmire of tropical madness entering into some very hot waters get out the popcorn show is about to begin

[robbielyn]

Elsa really high pressure. wonder if it set a record for highest pressure for a 50knot Ts

the funny thing is whenever there’s a storm approaching an old ankle injury flares up. not yet with this one. it doesn’t even feel like storm is getting near yet.

[boca]

On alligator alley now heading back from Fort Myers back to the east coast and so far so good with no bad weather.

[Jr0d]

Key West airport is showing gusts to 32mph, this is without any significant weather. The next rain band headed our way is showing rotation. Our biggest threat is waterspouts that make landfall...

This will likely be much more intense than many in the Keys are expecting. Sustained 50mph++ wind is no breeze.

[Deshaunrob17]

y

Looking through twitter I'm seeing different types of information
Some say shear will be low in the Gulf
Others say high
.,.......,,

[abajan]

Dr. Levi Cowan's latest video:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/S1t90INfeGY[/youtube]