When will the Atlantic's first major hurricane form?

[CyclonicFury]

Elsa has become the first hurricane of the season. The question now is when the first MAJOR hurricane of the Atlantic season will form. Mods/admins, can you create a poll please?

I'm thinking August 21-31, as usual.

[aspen]

I think between late July and early August could be the next opportunity for a major. SSTs will be a lot more favorable in the MDR, and there will be an enhanced CCKW coming in starting in the last third of July. That might allow for another July long-tracker, but perhaps one more similar to Bertha 96/08 than Isaias/Ernesto.

[cycloneye]

Made the question as a poll that will close on July 11 at 6:06 PM EDT. There are nine options for the members to vote.

[ElectricStorm]

Went with August 21-31. The last several seasons haven't produced majors before then and until that changes I will keep choosing late August

[Chris90]

I went with August 1-10, as I think the MDR will set up to be more favorable earlier than is typical, I think we're already seeing that with Elsa. She may not have achieved major (and I think her time is up on achieving it), but there was potential there, however slight, and that's a lot more than usual for early July.

[captainbarbossa19]

I think it will be around August 20th. It will also be a major threat to the CONUS (most likely the Gulf Coast or Florida). The 500mb pattern is looking dangerous for the Gulf Coast later this month.

[underthwx]

I chose August 11th thru August 20th...the sea temps will be warmer, and mid August seems like the time things get cranked up out there....

[Blinhart]

I'm going with the first week of August around August 6th.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is perhaps a shaky idea and likely wrong (but who knows really at this point in time), but my guess will be early August. While it has been a while since the last time we had a major early August hurricane (in fact, if I am correct the last time this happened was really with Charley in 2004), if the recent predictions of rising motion over Africa were to believed, then it would be that by the end of this month or early August, Cape Verde season could get a headstart. And if there is anything about Cape Verde hurricanes, it is that some of them go on to be historic and powerful. So with such a crazy velocity pattern predicted, I do think that there is a non zero chance that we see our first major hurricane during that timeframe.

[cycloneye]

Those who still have not voted come fast and cast it because the poll closes at 6:06 PM EDT.

[Stormybajan]

I went with August 11th-20th I just think thats when the Atlantic will finally kick into high gear

[toad strangler]

I went with August 11th-20th I just think thats when the Atlantic will finally kick into high gear

Agree and it's a safe choice as this is when the climo ramp up to peak season begins.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm thinking a little earlier than the past few years and am going with the August 11-20 period. One of the issues that has plagued more recent seasons in August has been waves exiting at a high latitude and charging directly into SAL/cooler SSTs, but with all the buzz surrounding the Atlantic Nino it seems like we could get more waves splashing down at an equatorward latitude thanks to the southerly-displaced ITCZ, giving them a better chance to be shielded from the drier air to the north. We already got finished seeing a similar situation with Elsa very early on in the season, which in itself could argue for a more conducive background state in the Atlantic overall.

[cycloneye]

By one vote the August 11-20 option was the winner.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I went with August 11th-20th I just think thats when the Atlantic will finally kick into high gear

Agree and it's a safe choice as this is when the climo ramp up to peak season begins.

You see the future? Grace clutched up here right on 8/20.

[Iceresistance]

By one vote the August 11-20 option was the winner.

And verified!