ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

[wxman57]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

[BYG Jacob]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

[eastcoastFL]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

I’d keep all the players ready to get in the game until she makes that turn

[BYG Jacob]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I would have agreed with you 30 minutes ago, down-slope convergence is resulting in a convective explosion currently.

[eastcoastFL]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

Where do you expect Florida landfall?

[jlauderdal]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

Could get additional support from the mid Atlantic into NE if it comes out intact after cuba but for now its almost all Floridians with the exception of the panhandle

where is jaxpro?

[eastcoastFL]

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

Could get additional support from the mid Atlantic into NE if it comes out intact after cuba but for now its almost all Floridians with the exception of the panhandle

where is jaxpro?

I’ve been wondering the same thing

[eastcoastFL]

Will watches fo up for the keys at 5 or 11? By then they’ll be about 24-36 hrs out

[aspen]

Seems like the new convective burst has tugged the center and caused a north wobble.

[DestinHurricane]

Seems like the new convective burst has tugged the center and caused a north wobble.

I think that is an optical illusion caused by the new convective burst to the N wrapping in. If you look close I don't think it wobbled.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The llc cant outrun this new burst. It’s going right around it.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/wx_elijah/status/1411393036681191433




If Elsa hits Haiti and the easternmost mountains of Cuba, I think she's done. However, as evident with this tweet, should Elsa stay just offshore from the major islands and maximize time over water, then watch out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa I believe may be back to hurricane intensity

[BYG Jacob]

The llc cant outrun this new burst. It’s going right around it.

Can't outrun convection if it fires right over the LLC, taps forehead.

[hurricane2025]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/38884456.gif?0.4133080056473636

Doesn’t look good

Center is exposed, floater shows that, it’s early July this is what u will get
Compared to what? Compared to this morning it is looking better each frame. I’m not sure what you’re using as a comparison.

[Nuno]

wxman, just call bones already.

I want to go ahead and get my BBQ ready for tomorrow.

since I've learned from others that his bearish forecasts aren't really what he truly believes will happen, but only what he "hopes" will happen, which explains why he is never bullish on a hurricane's development. So I've learned to never take his posts seriously.

Is this sarcasm? I hope so. He's one of the most seasoned, veteran, and reasonable meteorologists that posts on this site. It's too early in the season for this.

Sure, but that doesn't make him infallible. All Mets are respected on this website, but they are open to criticism too, especially if people are responding to those posts with "so we don't have to worry anymore?" like earlier. Seems odd given the wx-enthusiast attitude, pro or not, is to defer to the NHC but random lurkers and posters might not know that.

Also, the storm is clearly not outrunning its convection anymore lol.

[robbielyn]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

True. Tropical storms aren't that big of a deal for us, especially a fast moving one like Elsa. Yes, they can be deadly in their own right with rainfall and tornadoes, but SFL gets hit by a tropical storm at least once a year.

[BYG Jacob]

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

True. Tropical storms aren't that big of a deal for us, especially a fast moving one like Elsa. Yes, they can be deadly in their own right with rainfall and tornadoes, but SFL gets hit by a tropical storm at least once a year.

Y'all are getting a little too far ahead of yourselves assuming it will be a tropical storm