ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Looking much better, pressure is dropping, convection catching up to LLC, possibly starting to slow down. Elsa is coming back strong!

I'm glad recon is out there, I am becoming confident we she will be a hurricane by the next advisory.b

She is trying, but I would not be surprised if she fails to become a hurricane anytime soon. She might before making landfall in Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s about 3 hours before we actually start wobble watching, any little wobble here and there means so much down the road.

[Nimbus]

Wait, is Elsa trying to dodge the islands?

Not sure if sporadic memes are allowed on this forum, but if so -> Elsa right now:

https://i.imgur.com/KSXhTMB.png

Elsa reminds me of Max Fenig's "unmarked helicopter", I won't bother to link the song.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking much better, pressure is dropping, convection catching up to LLC, possibly starting to slow down. Elsa is coming back strong!

I'm glad recon is out there, I am becoming confident we she will be a hurricane by the next advisory.b

She is trying, but I would not be surprised if she fails to become a hurricane anytime soon. She might before making landfall in Cuba.

She is going bonkers right now for her structure. It’s like she hit the perfect environment for reintensification. I expect her to regain hurricane status

[Sciencerocks]

[AutoPenalti]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1306/FaAGTk.gif

It’s vigorous.

[jlauderdal]

It’s about 3 hours before we actually start wobble watching, any little wobble here and there means so much down the road.

We have transitioned from HWRF watching to wobble watching and its only July 3rd, real progress

[StPeteMike]

As I called last night, will just miss Haiti to the south and west. Had this storm been more structured and was looking as unhealthy as it was last night, the storm would had likely gone the way the forecast had it. But the storm trying to catch up the MLC to the LLC and band around gave it enough little bumps to the west and south to miss the island.

Still thinking it will swipe up the Jamaican coast but could miss the island by ~20 miles to the east and north.

[Category5Kaiju]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

As you can see here, it looks like deep layer wind shear is reducing its grip on Elsa for the time being. In fact, interestingly enough there is a ring of very light wind shear that is just SW of her current location.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No doubt Elsa is slightly south of forecast track. We'll see if that's enough to keep it from clipping Haiti & Cuba. Wouldn't take much of a jog to really wreck it either.

[psyclone]

It definitely gets credit for tenacity. convection is giving the speedy center a good chase

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ArgE0Pt.png

She’s really south of the expected position for this time. If Elsa continues this track, she might miss Jamaica and the heel of Cuba, giving her 24-36 hours over water to re-intensify. Elsa’s current position at the lower edge of the cone would suggest a track that doesn’t make landfall until west-central Cuba on Monday morning…assuming she sticks to that.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa pulling together that convection fast. Once it wraps around it’s going to have an eye essentially instantly

[BYG Jacob]

Down slope convergence doing the trick right now

[jlauderdal]

Wait, is Elsa trying to dodge the islands?

Not sure if sporadic memes are allowed on this forum, but if so -> Elsa right now:

https://i.imgur.com/KSXhTMB.png

At this point just about everything is allowed, there is no denying that Elsa is a real fighter, the fast forward speed is a negative at times but now it could help it as it attempts to get through the shredder and into a better setup on the other side...the shredder is a double whammy as it has mountains that cause disruption to the circulation and then as these systems proceed away the inflow can be choked but we have seen varying degrees of inflow disruption over the years, a real fork in the road for tropical systems in this area of the basin

[InfernoFlameCat]

I cannot stop watching this thing it’s a pain to write here and miss looking at the storm lol.

[eastcoastFL]

She’s about to tap into some of her warmest waters yet and shear isn’t really a thing from here to Cuba. If she also slows down it could ramp up

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this will probably be a hurricane by the time it gets to Cuba, especially if it doesn't wobble into Haiti.

[BYG Jacob]

She’s about to tap into some of her warmest waters yet and shear isn’t really a thing from here to Cuba. If she also slows down it could ramp up

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

On track to just skirt by all those mountains.

[eastcoastFL]