ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is healing. Convection popping up west of her. She is going to heal her center. Also practically no shear in her path as seen by the convective bursts going up and doing nothing but stand still.

[psyclone]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Yeah this is literally Ernesto. The difference is, this is July 3rd and not peak season.

This is a great comparison. Ernesto was a pitiful storm demolished by terrain. Elsa is a foreshock for peak season. I'm not worried about what it brings in 2 or 3 days...but more worried about what it foretells in 2 or 3 months..

[aspen]

She may stay just far enough south to miss Hispaniola and just far enough north to miss Jamaica. It’s gonna be all about the approach to Cuba

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/81916905.gif?0.9392276249681438

It’s looking very close, but recon has recorded a WNW motion that seems to be in the right direction to miss both Haiti and Jamaica. If so, could it be enough to miss the “heel” of Cuba?

[AutoPenalti]

Elsa trying to wrap again, amazing how mother nature finds a way to heal.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is trying to wrap her convection around her. Let’s see if she does it. If she does RI may occur. 10% chance that happens in my opinion

[eastcoastFL]

She may stay just far enough south to miss Hispaniola and just far enough north to miss Jamaica. It’s gonna be all about the approach to Cuba

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/81916905.gif?0.9392276249681438

It’s looking very close, but recon has recorded a WNW motion that seems to be in the right direction to miss both Haiti and Jamaica. If so, could it be enough to miss the “heel” of Cuba?

It’s going to be really close. HWRF has it missing Haiti and Jamaica then kinda rides the southern coast of Cuba not really going over land until central Cuba where it kinda bolts straight across due north and comes out as a TS before wrapping back up around Naples. Lots of rain is going to be the big concern for Florida. It’s been pouring everyday and as I write this I can hear thunder.

[eastcoastFL]

Cloud cover is getting pretty thick and convection starting to expand west back over that run away LLC

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Cat5James]

She may stay just far enough south to miss Hispaniola and just far enough north to miss Jamaica. It’s gonna be all about the approach to Cuba

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/81916905.gif?0.9392276249681438

It’s looking very close, but recon has recorded a WNW motion that seems to be in the right direction to miss both Haiti and Jamaica. If so, could it be enough to miss the “heel” of Cuba?

The “heel” is the only major obstacle left… if Elsa finds a way to avoid that as well

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait, is Elsa trying to dodge the islands?

[eastcoastFL]

Radar out of Haiti…kinda

https://weather.com/weather/radar/inter ... ffb18090f5

[kevin]

Elsa hasn't given up yet, she's trying to wrap around. Let's see whether it's successful.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is popping off right now. Wow convection is going up and around. I know I shouldn’t root for it but Go Elsa go!

[Nimbus]

She may stay just far enough south to miss Hispaniola and just far enough north to miss Jamaica. It’s gonna be all about the approach to Cuba

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/81916905.gif?0.9392276249681438

When she slows down near Jamaica that intact core with tight pressure gradient could spin up fast.
If the forecast northwest turn comes late it would mean western Cuba is the only major land interaction before the gulf.

[DestinHurricane]

Just going to miss the SW tip of hati. Maybe some land friction can help it every so slightly move more W than WNW for a bit. Every little bit of latitude gain hurts the storm at this point, as it needs to avoid that southeastern portion of cuba

[kevin]

Wait, is Elsa trying to dodge the islands?

Not sure if sporadic memes are allowed on this forum, but if so -> Elsa right now:

[eastcoastFL]

[InfernoFlameCat]

The island is really helping convergence initiate and build up thunderstorms that can wrap.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah ha, like I said earlier, never write a struggling storm off, especially when it has overperformed before (as Elsa did when it was a hurricane when it struck Barbados and we only thought it would have been a TS). One thing I have learned since my start of tracking storms in 2017 is that at least in recent years, overperforming storms tend to "try" to find ways around any setbacks and hardly give up on doing so. It almost seems like they have personalities of their own.

[Jr0d]

Looking much better, pressure is dropping, convection catching up to LLC, possibly starting to slow down. Elsa is coming back strong!

I'm glad recon is out there, I am becoming confident we she will be a hurricane by the next advisory.b

[catskillfire51]