ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdray]

NWS JAX is mentioning the potential for flooding. We have had 2 straight weeks of rain, so everything is saturated. A couple of the local rivers/creeks are at flood stage already, with a few more in monitoring stage.
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax

A lot of the area has had 10+ inches over the two weeks, and 5+ inches over the last week alone. Regardless of the strength of the winds, the rainfall will be the most concern.

[psyclone]

There might still be some wind but the system appears to be steadily degrading with time...and that's without engaging terrain yet. I have seen no evidence of any concern around here from Elsa and that nonchalant view appears to have been appropriate so far..

[Shell Mound]

They’re not passing the center right now.

I’m mainly referring to the readings from the AF304 Mission #5 into ELSA that made four fixes. I couldn’t find FL or SFMR near the LLC that supported 55-60 kt.

That was from the start of the convective blow-up much earlier this morning.

I was referring to this:

Is that flight-level? If so, is that the raw number, or has it been multiplied by 9/10?

They found 55-60 kt FL wind and 50 kt MSLP. That would equate roughly to a 50-55 kt tropical storm.

Careful dropping those FL winds to the surface. That's the low-level easterly jet that has been north of the storm. Those winds won't translate well to the surface outside of convection. In fact, the plane found decreasing surface winds beneath that jet (30-35 kts).

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121916&p=2911394#p2911394

Was this an issue during the flight that I mentioned as well?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While it's unlikely that Elsa will become an impressive hurricane, there is definitely a brief window of opportunity to restrengthen betwen Haiti and Cuba. Very favorable upper-level environment & deep TCHP. Just needs to slow down enough to take advantage of it and it could easily hit 80-85mph again before landfall in Cuba.

[Jr0d]

Recon found a fair amount of 60kt SFMR winds, despite the exposed LLC and ragged appearance. Surprisingly it will not take much for Elsa to become a hurricane again.

Elsa will go bonkers when it slows down.

It will.likely slow down about the same time it stopped being 'choked' by the mountains of Hispaniola later tonight.

I will guess around 8pm tonight it will really start to fire up and will make a run at cat 2 tomorrow.morning (Amateur opinion not a forecast.....and I'm usually wrong besides)

[eastcoastFL]

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so it looks like we are at the point where we must monitor even the slightest shifts in tracks, environmental conditions, and satellite appearances as they could hold the key to understanding Elsa's fate. While I initially expected that this storm would have been formidable by now, it seems like its fast speed was a real hindrance to what it could have potentially been. However, I would definitely still keep an eye on how it fares during these very important times as depending on what happens, we either end up with slop or something else. In the tropics, weird things have happened before, and it is never a bad thing to be aware of this. Let's sit back and watch this situation unfold and let Nature do her work.

[Jr0d]

Unflagged 63kt and 71kt SFMR winds found just NE of the center....however the flight level winds were only around 45kts so.not sure if it is accurate.

Earlier a relatively large area of 60kt SFMR winds were found well east of the center but they are being question because of the much lower flight level winds

[Nimbus]

Elsa is a small core with a sharp pressure gradient, recon just found a pressure drop down about 3 milibars from an hour ago.

[jlauderdal]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/141 ... 94119?s=19

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

This angle sure looks like it will just barely miss the the peninsula

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Cat5James]

LLC just dove west past few frames... Elsa senses land and she doesnt like it

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1411375021474394119?s=19

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Puns all around

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

[Jr0d]

This angle sure looks like it will just barely miss the the peninsula

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Using the 'sandwich' composite it appears the convection is slowly catching up with the LLC.....

If this trend continues, Elsa may be upgraded at the 5pm.

[kevin]

Looks like she's slowly improving. Don't get me wrong, she's not that impressive atm but it's better than earlier today. Let's see what happens the next few hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

You know what storm Elsa reminds me a lot of actually? Hurricane Ernesto (2006).

Yeah this is literally Ernesto. The difference is, this is July 3rd and not peak season.

[eastcoastFL]

This angle sure looks like it will just barely miss the the peninsula

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Using the 'sandwich' composite it appears the convection is slowly catching up with the LLC.....

If this trend continues, Elsa may be upgraded at the 5pm.

Every time the LLC gets out ahead convection seems to just expand more and more. I think we’ve also seen before that friction with land induced some convection.

[eastcoastFL]

She may stay just far enough south to miss Hispaniola and just far enough north to miss Jamaica. It’s gonna be all about the approach to Cuba

[MGC]

Downslope winds off Hispaniola and Elsa's relentless fast pace likely causing lack of convection in eastern half. TC is headed to higher ocean heat content and lower mountains in Cuba. I expect convection to redevelop and the storm to become a hurricane again before landfall in Cuba......MGC