ATL: ELSA - Models

[aspen]

06Z HWRF is almost a full degree North thru 36 hours... will certainly have implications on overall track.

I think it’s now too weak and too far north in the short term. Ground-based observations suggest Elsa is nearing hurricane intensity, and its current position appears to be spot-on with the 00z run’s expected position for this time. Hopefully any new data will be put into the 12z run.

[MGC]

Definite shift westward between the 00z ECM and Ensembles yesterday compared to today’s 00z run. Looking more and more like a FL Panhandle to Big Bend area landfall down the road.

Dean, this is what I've been thinking also. Cat2 into panhandle.....MGC

[SFLcane]

Big NE shift on the 06z hwrf

[Bigdan75]

It looks like landfall Tampa area in hwrf

[Nimbus]

The troughing late in the model runs is subject to change.
I'm still seeing high pressure bridging east in the WV imagery that would keep Elsa south of Hispaniola.
Without interaction with the taller mountain ranges, a more northern track changes the gulf forecast quite a bit.
Caribbean forecast first of course, Barbados looks like they survived.

[Blinhart]

I'm guessing this stalled front that is supposed to be happening over Louisiana is what will be causing a barrier keeping her from moving Further West? Haven't been following too closely because I don't want to be worn out by the heart of the season, but when I saw Hurricane, I needed to come on here and really find out what is going on. I haven't been reading every post and don't feel like it right now, so trying to get a synopsis of what has been happening and what is expected to happen in the forecast.

PS: If this should be in Discussion rather than Models, feel free to move it.

[NDG]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

[kevin]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png

Lol, Euro is like a child that's too stubborn to admit he was wrong even when the evidence is laid in front of him .

[StPeteMike]

Well, if we are here 14 hours from now talking about how Elsa went from Cat 1 hurricane to open wave, I’ll never question the EURO ever again.

[BYG Jacob]

What the hell happened to the Euro?

[Laser30033003]

I read some where that there was bad date inputted…..so next run might be back on track…..

[tolakram]

This is the 0Z Euro run, just wanted to make sure it was posted for the record. The Euro has never been that good in the MDR, it should improve once it realizes there's a storm to track.

[SFLcane]

12z TCVN shifts right near Fort Myers.

[tolakram]

The other 0Z runs

GFS


CMC


HWRF (parent)

[ScottNAtlanta]

12z TCVN shifts right near Fort Myers.

That is looking like a Donna track

[boca]

12z TCVN shifts right near Fort Myers.

That is looking like a Donna track

Where was the TCVN track before?

[Cat5James]

12z TCVN shifts right near Fort Myers.

That is looking like a Donna track

Where was the TCVN track before?

Panhandle

[Ivanhater]

12Z Nam coming in further south and west. Going south of Cuba

[Ivanhater]

12Z Icon adamant this opens up into a wave like the Euro and Nam.

[StPeteMike]

12Z Nam coming in further south and west. Going south of Cuba

High seems still prevalent by Monday 0z. Further in the that day should see the trough beat back the high I am guessing.