#1235 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:28 am
Well, I had hoped that the recon flight would help clear up some questions and limit the model spread that has been plaguing both the track and intensity forecasts from the NHC. Unfortunately, due to issues that I can only speculate on and have no idea on their true nature, the flight ended up first flying over the island of Barbados at 700 mb, then came in too far south compared to the radar-observed center, so they missed the NE quad. They then found a nascent eddy without a west wind, explored a relatively convection-less area with very limited to nonexistent radar returns on the south side, and then missed the center to the SW again, meaning that the flight didn't sample much of any of the much stronger northern side. Considering all of that, and not to mention that the lowest pressure was coincided with an absolutely absurd and abrupt altitude alteration in the aircraft, I'm not sure how much of the data was uncontaminated by the weirdness of what appears to be an issue with the plane's instrumentation and the flight's measurements.
I hope the models have a better time discerning the flight data, because I'd greatly appreciate having some sort of consensus without model biases sending the storm anywhere from Bermuda to Lake Charles as either a remnant low or a full-fledged major hurricane. Ugh, what a mess.
Hopefully the next round of flights (Gonzo and a in-storm investigation by NOAA) turn out to be much better.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
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