ATL: ELSA - Models

[toad strangler]

0z GFS @ 102 hrs about to cross far W Cuba heading NW

[floridasun78]

look like more gulf system again less west fl system

[lando]

look like more gulf system again less west fl system

Not really, troph is there to scoop her NE

[toad strangler]

Significant SW shift on the 0z GFS like 12z & 18z ensembles were showing.

[AutoPenalti]

Significant SW shift on the 0z GFS like 12z & 18z ensembles were showing.

Except now 0z shifted back east. Op is shifted west.

[toad strangler]

[ElectricStorm]

[AutoPenalti]

http://i.ibb.co/JxVYLjt/GFS3.gif

Shortwave arrives later.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS feeling dangerous tonight. 970mb at hour 144

[AutoPenalti]

Landfall in the Big Bend.

[toad strangler]

http://i.ibb.co/JxVYLjt/GFS3.gif

Shortwave arrives later.

Yerp. Heart of Big Bend.

Watch 0z Euro will be Bermuda lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

http://i.ibb.co/JxVYLjt/GFS3.gif

Shortwave arrives later.

Yerp. Heart of Big Bend.

Watch 0z Euro will be Bermuda lol

Meanwhile, the CMC is showing the same thing for the 100th time. Every model is doubling down on a different solution. Fun....

[Cat5James]

Shortwave arrives later.

Yerp. Heart of Big Bend.

Watch 0z Euro will be Bermuda lol

Meanwhile, the CMC is showing the same thing for the 100th time. Every model is doubling down on a different solution. Fun....

I see that. This is because the CMC has a weaker storm which in this case brings it more northward. Judging by current appearance and future atmospheric conditions I believe the CMC is a bit too weak

[Steve]

Icon for the severalith run in a row peels off the energy into the front again.

Unfortunately, it seems that the 2020 issues of models poofing everything is going to continue.

Yeah AR24. But we could almost count on a dangerous alliance of ICON and CMC for genesis last year. Unfortunately unless the ICON is about to score a coup on this, it will remain unreliable for tracks. Notable on the GFS 00z is that it swings pretty far west and hits around Taylor County. It’s one of the most sparsely populated counties on the northern Gulf. But the worst convection rides up west of the center which ends up leaving the CONUS around the NC/VA border. Maybe not super extreme for those folks in coastal GA, SC and NC, but notable weather.

[Steve]

Shortwave arrives later.

Yerp. Heart of Big Bend.

Watch 0z Euro will be Bermuda lol

Meanwhile, the CMC is showing the same thing for the 100th time. Every model is doubling down on a different solution. Fun....

Japanese model as well. It’s shown the strongest Atlantic ridgIng so far. Look at the 72 hr vs everything else but the EC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0200&fh=72

[Shell Mound]

The EPS has been the most consistent with the track to date, so I would give it more weight than the GEFS et al. Interaction with Hispaniola is likely to tear Elsa apart.

[Aric Dunn]

The EPS has been the most consistent with the track to date, so I would give it more weight than the GEFS et al. Interaction with Hispaniola is likely to tear Elsa apart.

No

[captainbarbossa19]

0z HWRF has this start intensifying once it enters the Caribbean. Looks like the pressure may be a little high. It initialized at about 1006 mb, which is about 3 mb too high.

[AxaltaRacing24]

0z HWRF has this start intensifying once it enters the Caribbean. Looks like the pressure may be a little high. It initialized at about 1006 mb, which is about 3 mb too high.

Yeah it was a suspect initialization this time.

[USTropics]

We need some recon data for sure, HWRF initialized with 2 rotating mesovortices. Possible but not what we were seeing on visible satellite imagery or current radar imagery from Barbados. Would expect a more disheveled look than current satellite presentation:



This continues for the next ~12 hours on the HWRF run, which makes it definitely a suspect run: