ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

It's not RIing yet, needs to get stacked first and even when that happens it will probably be more of a steady strengthening trend instead of rapid.

It’s certainly way closer to being stacked than earlier this afternoon, and this is the healthiest it has looked too. I think it will intensify somewhat quickly while stacked, but no crazy peak season RI; something that barely qualifies as RI.

Yeah it definitely looks better and I think it will become a hurricane. But I don't think it's going to be anything explosive, but we'll see.

[AtlanticWind]

Seen a lot of systems blow up convection as they reach 55-60 west
Was kind of expecting this.

We shall see how organized this can get before it reaches the Carribean.

[SFLcane]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

[InfernoFlameCat]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

This level of warmth in the Gulf of Guinea has really not been paralleled in the recent past if I am not mistaken. Also, while I seriously hope and do not think it will occur, if Elsa actually becomes a Cat 4 or 5 storm, I'll eat my shoe and do 90 burpees nonstop. And if it beats Emily in strength, I'm moving to Mars.

Better start packing. On a more serious note. No this will almost definitely not become a cat 5. Cat 3 is probably the highest this storm could achieve. If it does reach cat 4, Kaiju I will join you.

[IsabelaWeather]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j7hGSn/5-F13-C61-E-3-EAE-4913-A93-E-D33472-EF2-F59.gif

Honestly I was thinking the same exact thing. Certainly looks like one based on IR

[abajan]

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

No, but suffice it to say that Atlantic Niño is a real thing - and there's one happening this year.

Do you think it will pass north of Barbados

It (more correctly, its center) just might. Then again, that may just be my hoping it does than being based on anything concrete.

[AtlanticWind]

Would not be suprised to see the NHC raise the intensity forecast tonight.

[Steve]

45kt ASCAT

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc21/ATL/05L.ELSA/ascat/hires/LATEST.jpg

This confirms the shift of the shear vector from E to SW. Dead giveaways were the the M/I imagery, and qudrant of the tight IR temperature gradient that developed "between "6 an 9 o'clock" on IR imagery.

Pretty crazy that the shear vector was easterly yesterday, apparently out of the north briefly this morning (according to social media posts I read) and is now from the SW.

How can it change like that so suddenly?

Forward speed.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking pretty good at the moment and just a tad north of the forecast points.

[Stormybajan]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

Well to be fair to them they really are cutting it close with us, but the hurricane hunter plane at St.Croix should leave at 3:15 AM and probably reach the storm within an hour, before the system hits us. I say the nhc will most likely go with 50 mph at 2 am then recon will find a 60 mph storm on our doorsteps.

[Stormybajan]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j7hGSn/5-F13-C61-E-3-EAE-4913-A93-E-D33472-EF2-F59.gif

HOW ABOUTTT...NO.

[eastcoastFL]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

I’m a little surprised they didn’t stage a plane sooner and fly today

[InfernoFlameCat]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j7hGSn/5-F13-C61-E-3-EAE-4913-A93-E-D33472-EF2-F59.gif

HOW ABOUTTT...NO.

Actually that is a cdo.

[eastcoastFL]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

Is there a site for Barbados Radar?

[St0rmTh0r]

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

This level of warmth in the Gulf of Guinea has really not been paralleled in the recent past if I am not mistaken. Also, while I seriously hope and do not think it will occur, if Elsa actually becomes a Cat 4 or 5 storm, I'll eat my shoe and do 90 burpees nonstop. And if it beats Emily in strength, I'm moving to Mars.

Better start packing. On a more serious note. No this will almost definitely not become a cat 5. Cat 3 is probably the highest this storm could achieve. If it does reach cat 4, Kaiju I will join you.

Guess you two will be telling us what the weather's like on Mars.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF really nailing this one so far. Interested to see how track plays out

The HWRF has been downright impressive the last couple of years. Hopefully it's wrong though because if it's not, it's gonna be a big problem for someone down the road...

I agree, I hope it’s wrong also. I think after the 2019 they did some kind of upgrade that integrated a new radar or something like that into the model and ever since that it has been extremely impressive on picking up the storm structures and tracks. It does tend to over hype some systems but it usually has its reasons. Like right now it’s seeing no sheer and warm water ahead and keeping the storm south of the islands. In any other scenario that’s a perfect situation to RI but I think it’s not accounting for the forward speed and that’s why I think it’ll be off on intensity…I hope.

[Stormybajan]

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

Is there a site for Barbados Radar?

https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Local_Resp.php

[eastcoastFL]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j7hGSn/5-F13-C61-E-3-EAE-4913-A93-E-D33472-EF2-F59.gif

Man look at those cloud tops. What a difference a few hours can make in the right conditions. Imagine if she was going 12mph instead of 28

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Looks better on WV too, outflow improving.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15164&y=8322&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

floater IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1032&y=610&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

nighttime MP
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=974&y=653.5&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6