ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Like I said here she comes!

https://i.postimg.cc/W3czbvLk/B3-CB7-E5-D-3-F09-40-F1-8929-3-C1057-C4-A00-E.gif

She’s burning the midnight oil now. On water vapor it looks like she’s shoving the dry air to her west and NW out of the way.

[Kohlecane]

Not sure if this was discussed as I skimmed through rather quickly, but Is it due to speed that the cone is so elongated, by that I mean I just dont recall a storm that had the solid portion of the cone extend such a distance even when this was a PTC just shy of 50W.

[eastcoastFL]

Convection beginning to wrap upshear, looking much better than earlier.

What is “upshear” is that a term I don’t know?

[eastcoastFL]

Not sure if this was discussed as I skimmed through rather quickly, but Is it due to speed that the cone is so elongated, by that I mean I just dont recall a storm that had the solid portion of the cone extend such a distance even when this was a PTC just shy of 50W.

That’s exactly why. It’s still 2k miles away but it’s got all of Florida in the cone already. It’s just hauling butt

[Aric Dunn]

There she blows.. getting towers in multiple quads now..

good old HWRF>>

[Chemmers]

Starting to ramp up, might be a strong topical storm in the morning?

[SFLcane]

There she blows.. getting towers in multiple quads now..

good old HWRF>>

Yep!

[abajan]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

Is it normal for the Atlantic to look like this on July 1st??

No.

[eastcoastFL]

There she blows.. getting towers in multiple quads now..

good old HWRF>>

It’s actually looking better right now on IR than the HWRF IR Sat prediction

[aspen]

Could the LLC refocus at ~12N where that new blob of convection is? If so, that’s gonna upend most of the model forecasts.

[tolakram]

Not sure if this was discussed as I skimmed through rather quickly, but Is it due to speed that the cone is so elongated, by that I mean I just dont recall a storm that had the solid portion of the cone extend such a distance even when this was a PTC just shy of 50W.

No, the cone is just historical error percentages around each forecast point. It's actually circles around each point, which get larger with time.

[eastcoastFL]

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15466&y=8360&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[InfernoFlameCat]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Absolutely gorgeous. Note the bands spiraling into it. Also has a very Cape Verde look to it with the large feeder bands.

[AJC3]

Convection beginning to wrap upshear, looking much better than earlier.

What is “upshear” is that a term I don’t know?

Upshear is the direction from which the shear (vector) is coming.
Downshear is the direction toward which the shear is blowing.

Think of it in the same terms that you would use for the flow of a river - upstream and downstream.

[eastcoastFL]

Convection beginning to wrap upshear, looking much better than earlier.

What is “upshear” is that a term I don’t know?

Upshear is the direction from which the shear (vector) is coming.
Downshear is the direction toward which the shear is blowing.

Think of it in the same terms that you would use for the flow of a river - upstream and downstream.

Thank you, so In that context what would it mean to be wrapping upshear?

[GrayLancer18]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Looks like the Euro might nail this one down trackwise.

[InfernoFlameCat]

What is “upshear” is that a term I don’t know?

Upshear is the direction from which the shear (vector) is coming.
Downshear is the direction toward which the shear is blowing.

Think of it in the same terms that you would use for the flow of a river - upstream and downstream.

Thank you, so In that context what would it mean to be wrapping upshear?

Convection is wrapping towards the shear, indicating shear is having little to no effect on the system.

[AJC3]

What is “upshear” is that a term I don’t know?

Upshear is the direction from which the shear (vector) is coming.
Downshear is the direction toward which the shear is blowing.

Think of it in the same terms that you would use for the flow of a river - upstream and downstream.

Thank you, so In that context what would it mean to be wrapping upshear?

In that context, it would be stating that the convection is wrapping around on the side of the system from where the shear is coming.

[Kingarabian]

Could the LLC refocus at ~12N where that new blob of convection is? If so, that’s gonna upend most of the model forecasts.

Yes certainly plausible if it wasn't moving @ about 24kts.