ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Good bit of lightning popping off to the west of the LLC at the moment

[Weatherboy1]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

100% agree. If I didn't know the date, and looked at this full-Atlantic satellite shot, I'd guess sometime in late August!

[Aric Dunn]

Convection slowly expanding and building to the north of the center now.. and some towers looking like they are starting in the sw quad.

[Steve H.]

In some respects, I think Elsa looked better yesterday

[aspen]

The HWRF’s prediction for 18z seems spot on — a dry slot on the west side, spotty convection, and a displaced LLC/MLC. However, in order for the rest of the run to verify, Elsa must have moisture wrapped around the entire center by sunrise tomorrow and get vertically stacked by noon to early afternoon, no later than that. If we see a big convective burst over the center around 8pm-12am tonight, that would also make the rest of the HWRF run more probable.

[captainbarbossa19]

On the wide-view Atlantic satellite, Elsa sure looks to be choking off the dry air to the NW. Also, she looks like she is getting a little more symmetrical.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid

[hipshot]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

Look at all those waves coming off of Africa!!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is rotating faster, also appears to be beginning to develops convection around the center and it appears to have stacked. She is going to intensify.

[Hurricaneman]

Elsa is rotating faster, also appears to be beginning to develops convection around the center and it appears to have stacked. She is going to intensify.

Nope, the low is west of the convection

[AutoPenalti]

Elsa is rotating faster, also appears to be beginning to develops convection around the center and it appears to have stacked. She is going to intensify.

No. It's outpacing the MLC.

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa is rotating faster, also appears to be beginning to develops convection around the center and it appears to have stacked. She is going to intensify.

Nope, the low is west of the convection

It does look like Elsa may be starting to move into an area with less shear though. She is looking less flat on satellite compared to this morning.

[DestinHurricane]

Elsa is rotating faster, also appears to be beginning to develops convection around the center and it appears to have stacked. She is going to intensify.

Not stacked yet, but may be if we get some more convection to the NW after sunset.

[NDG]

Compared to this morning Elsa has improved its satellite presentation with deep convection in the NE quadrant.

[Stormybajan]

She's looking a bit more symmetrical over the last hour or so..we will have wait another hour to see if gradual intensification has begun or is this just a fluke either way the outflow is impressive

[DestinHurricane]

It is nearing dmin right now, so we should see convection take off further after the sun goes down. I think once the sun goes down you will see lots of convection fire, as the HWRF has predicted.

[TallahasseeMan]

All Elsa needs to do during this portion of her journey is not break open into a wave. The HWRF/HMON don't develop this thing deeply for another 18-24 hours.

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sorry, almost stacked. Getting closer for sure though. Beautiful system

[Kingarabian]

Yesterday the LLC was displaced NE away from the deepest convection. Today it's having trouble sustaining deep convection near the center. Qualifies as a 2.0 on Dvorak.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Remember, all it takes is 24-36 hours of Elsa getting ideal conditions for it to become a cat 1-2. If it is mostly stacked once it gets to the islands, it can easily intensify.