ATL: ELSA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF is going to miss the mountains to the south, moving WNW.

[Cat5James]

Both hurricane models are showing almost identical solutions as far as passing just south of Hispanola.
HWRF depicting a stronger storm overall

[aspen]

HWRF just misses the hook of Haiti and has Elsa become a Category 3, likely to make landfall in Cuba.

[kevin]

HWRF threading the needle between the islands which allows Elsa to strengthen significantly. Goes to show how much tiny details can have on hurricane forecasts. 100 km east and it's a whole different story.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

Will likely miss the highest peaks of Cuba to the south as well, this might get ugly.

EDIT: Actually it looks like it clips the hook of Cuba. It weakens slightly.

[AutoPenalti]

Reminder of how sensitive intensity is if it ever crosses the mountains...

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF 930hr still south of Cuba moving WNW.

[Steve]

HWRF 930hr still south of Cuba moving WNW.

That’s a month from now

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro is about 1 degree further west than the GFS in 24 hours. This may not be unrealistic unless Elsa starts to slow down.

[Cat5James]

HMON landfall Ft Myers Tuesday

[captainbarbossa19]

Essentially an identical run from the Euro 12z yesterday. Near exact location about to smash into Hispaniola. The Euro really hates Elsa. Lol.

[Steve]

GFS ends up running the east Coast until NC and then pulls out and heads out offshore passing the Cape in MA to the SE.

[eastcoastFL]

Essentially an identical run from the Euro 12z yesterday. Near exact location about to smash into Hispaniola. The Euro really hates Elsa. Lol.

I think it may edge the south of the island but I have doubts about slamming into the shredder.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF moving NNW into Cuba, a lot further west.

[Steve]

HMON looks to hit between Naples and Cape Coral (+/- Bonita Springs) on Tuesday morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=120

In contrast, the HWRF is SW of the HMON at the same time.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=120

[toad strangler]

12z Euro stick with that Eastern flow up around the main ridge as per Levi's last video. The rest of the models are taking the southern route under the western arm of the ridge. Seriously this scenario looks much like the NOAA track map for July.

[AutoPenalti]

Holy mother of Charley track... HWRF what is you doin'

[Nimbus]

at hour 48 HWRF is not only 1 mb stronger but it is also more than a degree further south than 6Z run. As I said in the discussion, I think the delays in intensification and thus delays in latitude gain are going to cause south/west shifts.

The island planning officials need to be advised before the CONUS and with a track just to the south of the islands there would still be upslope winds causing flooding and mudslides over Hispaniola.

Mid gulf coast isn't in range of the HWRF yet but we are getting close to the five day forecast cone of uncertainty.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF run finishes on the west side of Florida for now.