ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

Obviously the forward speed is a hindrance, but by no means would it stop it from deepening to a hurricane. though for it to really bomb out it would probably need to slow down a little.

I don't think dry air is an issue at all. there is convection everywhere around. the band to the north is firing deep convection, to the east... all the direction where the dry air would be coming from has convection.

so for the moment, the circ is plenty expansive and well defined.. I would wager it is just the forward speed that is causing it to take longer to come together.

I’m confused half of the post on here suggest a weakening storm the other half suggest a strengthening storm

The joys of trying to understand the unknown. Unfortunately kind of comes with the territory as we are still pretty poor at guessing intensity of these storms. In cases like this where conditions aren't optimal but not terrible either it is difficult. My guess would be it stays about the same or slowly strengthens but who knows lol.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/hiqFZrbeQbA[/youtube]

[alienstorm]

The LLC is moving too fast and will outrun the convection. So there is a chance that this opens up again.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410638003572293635

As we’ve discussed before I have little faith in euro for now, it’s just been awful last year and with this system. I think it’s just a developing system and since it’s going so fast it’s developing slower than it could at a slower speed. It’s just wait and see time. HWRF has been on point so I’m interested to see if it continues to be. Not talking about intensity but overall structure and path.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Another look zoomed out, longer loop. It definitely has a closed circulation centered just west of the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/k1OVcxV.gif

Its a combination slight shear, hint of dry air and forward speed which is doing in Elsa right now, I still think it will reach 60 mph before impacting the islands but seeing it now, it will be a struggle to even reach that forecast mainly because its moving too fast for its own good.

This thing is gonna get hurricane status due to forward speed lmao. Slow down Elsa.

[AlphaToOmega]

My take on everything: Tropical Storm Elsa will struggle until it reaches the Caribbean. Wind shear in the southern MDR is currently above-average, which is not conducive for intensification. When it reaches the Caribbean, it will be in a low-wind-shear environment, giving it a chance to intensify. Just like in the MDR, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are more than enough for intensification. This system could become a hurricane in the Caribbean.

[DestinHurricane]

These delays in organization could be trouble long term. Long it stays weak and keeps on going west, the higher the chance of avoiding land interaction and moving into the gulf a stronger storm.

[Blown Away]

Elsa appears to be steady gaining latitude now, has a vigorous circulation, and convection popping all over. Elsa on her way to a modest TS by tomorrow and any decrease in speed will allow convection to wrap.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1410645631803138053

[eastcoastFL]

Convection is persistent above the center. It’s moving a good clip almost NW at the moment

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is, looking at the HWRF, we'll see a big blowup of convection around 55W overnight as the storm reaches warmer waters. Elsa has the structure to take off, the question just is if it can with the dry air and fast forward speed.

[aspen]

My guess is, looking at the HWRF, we'll see a big blowup of convection around 55W overnight as the storm reaches warmer waters. Elsa has the structure to take off, the question just is if it can with the dry air and fast forward speed.

The HWRF actually shows a bit of drier air getting in but is eventually mixed out. If you look at the HWRF’s relative humidity forecast, there’s a tongue of much paler green air (drier air) that gets in on the west side, but moisture coming from the south is able to wrap around the circulation.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think a bunch of leaders are going to start popping around 8 or 9pm edt like the hwrf suggests. It could essentially outrun the dry SAL to its north.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens I really hope Elsa does not make landfall over and stays south of Haiti. As we have seen in previous years (Laura most recently), Haiti is especially sensitive to tropical cyclones due to their poor infrastructure and ragged geography, and even a tropical storm that passes over or near the island nation can kill many people.

[Stormybajan]

Whatever happens I really hope Elsa does not make landfall over and stays south of Haiti. As we have seen in previous years (Laura most recently), Haiti is especially sensitive to tropical cyclones due to their poor infrastructure and ragged geography, and even a tropical storm that passes over or near the island nation can kill many people.

Yep. Those Hurricane Matthew flashbacks, im also kind of hoping it stays below 60 mph because St.Vincent is still covered with ash in the very north section of the country so hot lahars can be a real added threat for them but Elsa has always had an impressive outflow but until she clears the factors affecting it, gradual strengthening is still my call

[wxman57]

Elsa is still struggling due to the fast forward speed. Broad center west of convection. Can see a small vortex rotating counter-clockwise. No change from earlier today. Hoping the ICON and EC are correct with this one and it dissipates in the Caribbean.

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa is still struggling due to the fast forward speed. Broad center west of convection. Can see a small vortex rotating counter-clockwise. No change from earlier today. Hoping the ICON and EC are correct with this one and it dissipates in the Caribbean.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa4.JPG

Let's hope they are right and Elsa fails to be a big threat to anyone.

[eastcoastFL]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even
faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next
24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
By early Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern
Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

[wxman57]

Elsa is still struggling due to the fast forward speed. Broad center west of convection. Can see a small vortex rotating counter-clockwise. No change from earlier today. Hoping the ICON and EC are correct with this one and it dissipates in the Caribbean.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa4.JPG

Let's hope they are right and Elsa fails to be a big threat to anyone.

12Z Euro still indicates dissipation near Haiti Sunday morning. Center appears to be near 10.8N / 52.3W. A little north of NHC's estimate for 18Z.

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa is still struggling due to the fast forward speed. Broad center west of convection. Can see a small vortex rotating counter-clockwise. No change from earlier today. Hoping the ICON and EC are correct with this one and it dissipates in the Caribbean.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa4.JPG

Let's hope they are right and Elsa fails to be a big threat to anyone.

12Z Euro still indicates dissipation near Haiti Sunday morning.

Either the Euro is going to be right, or it is really lazy. This run looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z run. I am having doubts that Elsa is going to amount to much unless she starts to slow down. Since the NHC is saying she is about to accelerate even more, I would not be surprised if the Euro is right about Elsa.