ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

gonna need to fire convection to the west to get this thing going.

[eastcoastFL]

Coming together but still has some work to do on the NW side

[Shell Mound]

The center is quite clear and quite well defined. it has popped out from the convection..

BUT.. it is moving WSW. Likely a small organizational cyclonic loop..

Should be interesting to see what happens when it rotates back SE into the convection..

https://i.ibb.co/r7tRf9C/LABELS-19700101-000000-31.gif

https://i.ibb.co/SVpkxc1/Capture.png

Do you still think that Elsa could attain hurricane status prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles? At this point I still think a low-end to moderate TS is most likely.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410637335067250694

[eastcoastFL]

The center is quite clear and quite well defined. it has popped out from the convection..

BUT.. it is moving WSW. Likely a small organizational cyclonic loop..

Should be interesting to see what happens when it rotates back SE into the convection..

https://i.ibb.co/r7tRf9C/LABELS-19700101-000000-31.gif

https://i.ibb.co/SVpkxc1/Capture.png

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

[eastcoastFL]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

[NDG]

Coming together but still has some work to do on the NW side

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_05L/web/gifsBy12hr_02.gif

That is 5 hrs old.

[Nimbus]

That northern mesovort looks like it is generating a feeder band and will run away north of 10N.
At least its a little dry so Elsa doesn't have ideal conditions for rapid intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is quite clear and quite well defined. it has popped out from the convection..

BUT.. it is moving WSW. Likely a small organizational cyclonic loop..

Should be interesting to see what happens when it rotates back SE into the convection..

https://i.ibb.co/r7tRf9C/LABELS-19700101-000000-31.gif

https://i.ibb.co/SVpkxc1/Capture.png

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

Obviously the forward speed is a hindrance, but by no means would it stop it from deepening to a hurricane. though for it to really bomb out it would probably need to slow down a little.

I don't think dry air is an issue at all. there is convection everywhere around. the band to the north is firing deep convection, to the east... all the direction where the dry air would be coming from has convection.

so for the moment, the circ is plenty expansive and well defined.. I would wager it is just the forward speed that is causing it to take longer to come together.

[Shell Mound]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410638003572293635

[Weatherwatcher2018]

The center is quite clear and quite well defined. it has popped out from the convection..

BUT.. it is moving WSW. Likely a small organizational cyclonic loop..

Should be interesting to see what happens when it rotates back SE into the convection..

https://i.ibb.co/r7tRf9C/LABELS-19700101-000000-31.gif

https://i.ibb.co/SVpkxc1/Capture.png

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

Obviously the forward speed is a hindrance, but by no means would it stop it from deepening to a hurricane. though for it to really bomb out it would probably need to slow down a little.

I don't think dry air is an issue at all. there is convection everywhere around. the band to the north is firing deep convection, to the east... all the direction where the dry air would be coming from has convection.

so for the moment, the circ is plenty expansive and well defined.. I would wager it is just the forward speed that is causing it to take longer to come together.

I’m confused half of the post on here suggest a weakening storm the other half suggest a strengthening storm

[galaxy401]

I expect it to fluctuate in intensity for a bit as it races westward. If it survives the East Caribbean graveyard, I feel Elsa then can take off. Just my opinion though.

[Nuno]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

The shear anomaly maps show way less shear ahead of Elsa than normal. I really don't think shear is going to be a major issue.

[aspen]

It’s now kind of a waiting game to see if Elsa can manage to generate and keep convection fully over its LLC during the next 24-36 hours, before we finally get recon to determine what the inner structure truly is like.

If Elsa continues to struggle stacking its LLC and MLC, I think recon will find a 40-45 kt TS. If it does get stacked, it could be up to 50-60 kt and in the high 990s once recon arrives.

[toad strangler]

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

Obviously the forward speed is a hindrance, but by no means would it stop it from deepening to a hurricane. though for it to really bomb out it would probably need to slow down a little.

I don't think dry air is an issue at all. there is convection everywhere around. the band to the north is firing deep convection, to the east... all the direction where the dry air would be coming from has convection.

so for the moment, the circ is plenty expansive and well defined.. I would wager it is just the forward speed that is causing it to take longer to come together.

I’m confused half of the post on here suggest a weakening storm the other half suggest a strengthening storm

That will happen 'round these parts. Right now, at this moment, she is struggling mainly due to very fast motion.

[kevin]

It’s now kind of a waiting game to see if Elsa can manage to generate and keep convection fully over its LLC during the next 24-36 hours, before we finally get recon to determine what the inner structure truly is like.

If Elsa continues to struggle stacking its LLC and MLC, I think recon will find a 40-45 kt TS. If it does get stacked, it could be up to 50-60 kt and in the high 990s once recon arrives.

What time will recon arrive?

[Stormybajan]

Another look zoomed out, longer loop. It definitely has a closed circulation centered just west of the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/k1OVcxV.gif

Its a combination slight shear, hint of dry air and forward speed which is doing in Elsa right now, I still think it will reach 60 mph before impacting the islands but seeing it now, it will be a struggle to even reach that forecast mainly because its moving too fast for its own good.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410638003572293635

With all due respect, this isn't Erika in 2015. There is almost zero reason why Elsa will degenerate and the models agree by keeping it alive. The Euro and CMC are still playing catch-up and are stronger each run.

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think it’s forward speed or dry air giving it trouble on its NW side?

Obviously the forward speed is a hindrance, but by no means would it stop it from deepening to a hurricane. though for it to really bomb out it would probably need to slow down a little.

I don't think dry air is an issue at all. there is convection everywhere around. the band to the north is firing deep convection, to the east... all the direction where the dry air would be coming from has convection.

so for the moment, the circ is plenty expansive and well defined.. I would wager it is just the forward speed that is causing it to take longer to come together.

I’m confused half of the post on here suggest a weakening storm the other half suggest a strengthening storm

Well don't be confused by others flip-flopping. Right now it is neither deepening or weakening. We are just in limbo, awaiting to see if we can get a good explosion of convection over the center to help align the MLC.

Models hugging is never the answer. A lot of people go back and forth exactly in queue with each model run.

[SouthDadeFish]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410638003572293635

With all due respect, this isn't Erika in 2015. There is almost zero reason why Elsa will degenerate and the models agree by keeping it alive. The Euro and CMC are still playing catch-up and are stronger each run.

I wouldn't say almost zero reason. The storm is convectively asymmetric and the center is ill-defined. If the storm moves any faster and convection collapses from shear/ventilation the vortex could certainly open up. I don't think that's the most likely scenario, but I've seen this happen multiple times before. This storm is flying west at 28 mph right now. This is not an ideal environment for the intensification of a weak vortex.

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m thinking part of the reason for models strengthening it more as it gets south of Hispaniola is it starts to slow down at that point a little.

Honestly, I’m starting to believe that the combination of strong low-level trades, lingering northerly shear, and dry air may cause Elsa to degenerate into a wave. The GFS and HWRF in particular, while handling the structure fairly well, have consistently underestimated the strength of the low-level ridging, so Elsa continues to move faster than those models’ successive runs have predicted. On the other hand, the ECMWF, while initially failing to develop Elsa, has consistently shown a more realistic forward speed. I think Elsa could thus become a wave after impacting the Lesser Antilles as a marginal to moderate TS.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410638003572293635

With all due respect, this isn't Erika in 2015. There is almost zero reason why Elsa will degenerate and the models agree by keeping it alive. The Euro and CMC are still playing catch-up and are stronger each run.

Yeah also gotta consider that 2015 was a super El Nino year where wind shear was rampant in the Atlantic basin. At the time Erika existed, that would have obviously been a death sentence for the storm.