ATL: ELSA - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
At the end of the last gfs run it does a number on New England as a decent sized TS
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
GFS shows Elsa getting much stronger once it enters the Caribbean. This could be an ugly run.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
GFS stronger mid-run which must mean that it's finding favorable conditions downstream.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Going to avoid Hispanola again this run. GFS is very consistent with this storm.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Cat5James wrote:Going to avoid Hispanola again this run. GFS is very consistent with this storm.
Looks to be a close call with Jamaica after passing Hispaniola to the south.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
12z GFS Still no significant track shift through 78 hours compared to 0z and 6z
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
GFS landfalls on Jamaica, but further north compared to 06z. This time its landfall with Jamaica hurts it more than in the 06z version, but those things are determined by such tiny details that I don't think we should put much value into it one way or the other.
Last edited by kevin on Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Again, it's threading the needle as it passes just south of Hispanola but weakens as it barely crosses north of Jamaica.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Cat5James wrote:This run is going to hit the southern tip of FL
No actually it's going just west of it.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
GFS showing it getting stronger between Jamaica and Cuba @ 90 hours. Atlantic high pressure is backing NE ward as the trough lifts out of New England and the Canadian maritimees. The way to a block would be for ridging in the southern plains to bridge over the top or for a pulse off the Atlantic Ocean. That doesn't appear to be what the GFS is thinking. I'd expect this to turn up and hit South Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=90
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=90
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Subject to TONS of change going forward but I can't help but get a Charleyesque vibe here. Charley went S of Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Cat5James wrote:This run is going to hit the southern tip of FL
No actually it's going just west of it.
looking like Marco Island/naples area to me... we will find out soon
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
toad strangler wrote:Subject to TONS of change going forward but I can't help but get a Charleyesque vibe here. Charley went S of Jamaica.
Stop it GFS..
This run further east and north.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:Subject to TONS of change going forward but I can't help but get a Charleyesque vibe here. Charley went S of Jamaica.
Stop it GFS..
This run further east and north.
Man, just a couple more plots... C'mon GFS and spit those out.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
NE of 6z @126
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Closer to the West Coast this run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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