ATL: ELSA - Models
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
06z GFS is very persistent in the deep moisture wrapping around Elsa's LLC starting later this evening, we shall see.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
The Euro has already taken an L with this system since it developed in the first place. I don't trust it since it's still the outlier for now
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
NDG wrote:06z GFS is very persistent in the deep moisture wrapping around Elsa's LLC starting later this evening, we shall see.
https://i.imgur.com/0sUyzaG.gif
Both hurricane models depict similar development.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed link
Reason: fixed link
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:And the 6z Euro ensembles shift….west
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2021-07-01-06Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks.png
"King Euro" still playing catch up.... oh how the mighty have fallen
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:And the 6z Euro ensembles shift….west
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2021-07-01-06Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks.png
Numerous members are a bit stronger through 72h, too.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF track still verifying so far. It’s a tad faster but right on track for now.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Shell Mound wrote:HurricaneFrances04 wrote:And the 6z Euro ensembles shift….west
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2021-07-01-06Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks.png
Numerous members are a bit stronger through 72h, too.
Maybe it’s starting to finally adjust to the southern components from last night. Catching up to HWRF on track
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Shell Mound wrote:HurricaneFrances04 wrote:And the 6z Euro ensembles shift….west
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2021-07-01-06Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks.png
Numerous members are a bit stronger through 72h, too.
Western shift equates to stronger storm... the steering with this one is opposite of what we are used to.
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presidentofyes12
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
The 06z HWRF model run has Elsa pull a Fay 2008 and intensify over Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Highest winds for the last frame are offshore, about 58 mph
.gif)
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
presidentofyes12 wrote:The 06z HWRF model run has Elsa pull a Fay 2008 and intensify over Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Highest winds for the last frame are offshore, about 58 mph
https://pipe.miroware.io/5ea73c85ba35b8055638eb96/hwrf_ref_05L_fh114-126%20(2).gif
Going east to west?
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presidentofyes12
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:presidentofyes12 wrote:The 06z HWRF model run has Elsa pull a Fay 2008 and intensify over Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Highest winds for the last frame are offshore, about 58 mph
https://pipe.miroware.io/5ea73c85ba35b8055638eb96/hwrf_ref_05L_fh114-126%20(2).gif
Going east to west?
The model run ends where the gif ends, but its going north-northeast
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Interesting. There are several ensemble members that suggest that Louisiana may even be in play.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Posted in the wrong thread.
12z ICON is out to 60 hours and smashes it into the DR. On the 00z run it was somewhat refocusing tropical energy toward the former 95L. We'll see if it moves wave energy/low pressure over toward the Mexican Coast as the model comes in. I still don't think it's right, but I get the idea.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=60
Edit - out to 99 hours and again the energy just moves out with along the front though it doesn't focus as much at 95L as it did 2 runs ago. I still think this is wrong.
12z ICON is out to 60 hours and smashes it into the DR. On the 00z run it was somewhat refocusing tropical energy toward the former 95L. We'll see if it moves wave energy/low pressure over toward the Mexican Coast as the model comes in. I still don't think it's right, but I get the idea.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0112&fh=60
Edit - out to 99 hours and again the energy just moves out with along the front though it doesn't focus as much at 95L as it did 2 runs ago. I still think this is wrong.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
12z GFS is running now. It looks slightly weaker through 18 hours, but still getting better defined.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
GFS a lot weaker now through 24 hours but slowly intensifying.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:GFS a lot weaker now through 24 hours but slowly intensifying.
I suspect that the system may remain somewhat weak until it gets closer to Hispaniola and Jamaica on this run.
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