ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[presidentofyes12]

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Yeah, with the lack of significant shear in the Caribbean right now, Elsa shouldn't have too much trouble intensifying (if it slows down, of course)

[Aric Dunn]

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work

Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

[hipshot]

THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png

I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.

no

Looks like it may be just north east of the convective burst.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

[chaser1]

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work

Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

Nothin' beats a good offensive line and a solid blocking half-back

[cycloneye]

Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

Strong High Pressure.

[hipshot]

Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

I think it is due to the strong easterly trade winds this time of year.

[AutoPenalti]

Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

Trades usually peak at this time of year. It doesn't slow down until mid-late August.

[Sciencerocks]

[AutoPenalti]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Has that fist look to it. Yikes.

[Shell Mound]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Has that fist look to it. Yikes.

The “fist” is usually a telltale indicator of potential short-term RI or at least steady deepening. Also, the outflow is more typical of a hurricane than a TS:



The convective band developing just SW of the LLC is clearly attempting to merge with the convection on the eastern side...a formative mid-level “eye”?

 https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/1410608945559859209

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Has that fist look to it. Yikes.

The “fist” is usually a telltale indicator of potential short-term RI or at least steady deepening. Also, the outflow is more typical of a hurricane than a TS:
https://i.postimg.cc/wMMkqJHm/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-01-kl-16-34-40.png

The convective band developing just SW of the LLC is clearly attempting to merge with the convection on the eastern side...a formative mid-level “eye”?

Laura had the fist when it first became a hurricane.

[Shell Mound]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Those are lightning strikes. The last several frames show some locally intense lightning near the LLC, which is another potential sign of steady or RI.

[Stormybajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Elsa does have good outflow for a 40-45 mph storm, but you can still see the northerly shear it dealing with ..based on the modelling it looks like it will have less of an impact on the storm as it reaches closer to the islands

[MississippiWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Reflection of the sun off the water.

[AutoPenalti]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Lightning is usually indicated in yellow. The sun reflection as it's already peaking mid-day.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7153/U4d78V.gif

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Those are lightning strikes. The last several frames show some locally intense lightning near the LLC, which is another potential sign of steady or RI.

No they are these little circular white spots that come in and then fade at the mid to end of the loop. I see the yellow dots that’s not what I am talking about.

[aspen]

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work

Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

Who was the person who first said that 95L could help make the environment ahead favorable for 97L/Elsa to develop? Good call.

[Shell Mound]

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work

Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

Who was the person who first said that 95L could help make the environment ahead favorable for 97L/Elsa to develop? Good call.

I believe it was our dear Aric Dunn.