ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

No matter how good Elsa looks on satellite, that blistering forward speed could well be trouble since the storm does not have a really well defined circulation. There are so many examples of tropical storms that couldn’t hold their circulations together in the MDR while moving 30 mph. I’m still not 100% convinced Elsa won’t open up near the Lesser Antilles. IMO, it will need to be a moderate to strong TS ASAP and have a very robust circulation prior to accelerating tomorrow.

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

[AlphaToOmega]

Wind shear through the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~10 knots tomorrow. We will see if Tropical Storm Elsa can take advantage of that (look at 06Z GFS if you do not believe me).

Is that normal for early July?

During early July, shear there is usually 30-40 knots.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1410547224258519044
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410544841700872194
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1410538004603707393

Hans, stop it. On a more serious note, no. “Aric Dunn 2021”

[abajan]

Wind shear through the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~10 knots tomorrow. We will see if Tropical Storm Elsa can take advantage of that (look at 06Z GFS if you do not believe me).

Is that normal for early July?

During early July, shear there is usually 30-40 knots.

Levi Cowan explained why this is the case in his video published yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection on the south side is what the HWRF has been showing then it builds up the east side (happening now it appears) and wraps around..

so we shall see...

also of note.. it should already be above 10 N per the NHC first 2 advisories.. it is still heading West around 9.5 to 9.8N

let the southerly tracks shifts begin !

[aspen]

No matter how good Elsa looks on satellite, that blistering forward speed could well be trouble since the storm does not have a really well defined circulation. There are so many examples of tropical storms that couldn’t hold their circulations together in the MDR while moving 30 mph. I’m still not 100% convinced Elsa won’t open up near the Lesser Antilles. IMO, it will need to be a moderate to strong TS ASAP and have a very robust circulation prior to accelerating tomorrow.

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

Neither of them are much weaker. Instead of a minor hurricane in the high 980s, Elsa is a strong TS in the low 990s. If the 12z and 18z runs continue to get weaker, then we can say they’re caving into the Euro.

[Shell Mound]

No matter how good Elsa looks on satellite, that blistering forward speed could well be trouble since the storm does not have a really well defined circulation. There are so many examples of tropical storms that couldn’t hold their circulations together in the MDR while moving 30 mph. I’m still not 100% convinced Elsa won’t open up near the Lesser Antilles. IMO, it will need to be a moderate to strong TS ASAP and have a very robust circulation prior to accelerating tomorrow.

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

Neither of them are much weaker. Instead of a minor hurricane in the high 980s, Elsa is a strong TS in the low 990s. If the 12z and 18z runs continue to get weaker, then we can say they’re caving into the Euro.

Previous runs of the GFS/HWRF were showing a pressure in the low to mid 980s in the Lesser Antilles. The latest GFS shows 998 mb and the HWRF close to 990 mb. So to me the rise is fairly significant, along with the faster and more northerly solution on the latest HWRF. The dry air and strong easterlies are keeping convection confined to the south of the LLC as of now.

[NDG]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

[Cat5James]

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

Neither of them are much weaker. Instead of a minor hurricane in the high 980s, Elsa is a strong TS in the low 990s. If the 12z and 18z runs continue to get weaker, then we can say they’re caving into the Euro.

Previous runs of the GFS/HWRF were showing a pressure in the low to mid 980s in the Lesser Antilles. The latest GFS shows 998 mb and the HWRF close to 990 mb. So to me the rise is fairly significant, along with the faster and more northerly solution on the latest HWRF. The dry air and strong easterlies are keeping convection confined to the south of the LLC as of now.

The 06Z GFS trended stronger not sure which run you were watching

[SFLcane]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

That is racing at nearly 25-30 mph. Just don’t see how this can hold a circulation at this rate let alone intensify but we will see.

[Shell Mound]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

Yes, it is definitely a TS, but the LLC is outrunning the convection. Erika of 2015 might be a good analog. NHC's conservative forecast, notwithstanding uncertainty, ended up verifying at that time. I think a 50-kt TS in the Lesser Antilles still seems reasonable at this point, roughly in line with the NHC's projection.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it will miss the first advisory track point for 18z today by 1.7 degrees south

and will miss the 5am advisory forecast for 18z today by about .5 degrees south.

the southward adjustment have already begun.

unless that changes very soon.. forget about and landfall on Hispaniola.

[NDG]

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

Neither of them are much weaker. Instead of a minor hurricane in the high 980s, Elsa is a strong TS in the low 990s. If the 12z and 18z runs continue to get weaker, then we can say they’re caving into the Euro.

Previous runs of the GFS/HWRF were showing a pressure in the low to mid 980s in the Lesser Antilles. The latest GFS shows 998 mb and the HWRF close to 990 mb. So to me the rise is fairly significant, along with the faster and more northerly solution on the latest HWRF. The dry air and strong easterlies are keeping convection confined to the south of the LLC as of now.

As usually is the case they are coming closer together, just 36 hrs ago the Euro had it as an open wave through the Lesser Antilles.

[Aric Dunn]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

Yes, it is definitely a TS, but the LLC is outrunning the convection. Erika of 2015 might be a good analog. NHC's conservative forecast, notwithstanding uncertainty, ended up verifying at that time. I think a 50-kt TS in the Lesser Antilles still seems reasonable at this point, roughly in line with the NHC's projection.

it is not out running the the convection..

the convection rotated to the south and is building up the east side. with a long curved band developing out to the west of it as well.

[wxman57]

Center appears to be NW of the convection, near 10N/50W. Look at a microwave image. It's exposed NW of the convection. Mid-level center is what you're seeing on the satellite loops.

This is from 4 hours ago when it was near 9.9N/48.8W:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc21/ATL/97L.INVEST/ssmis/composite/20210701.0741.f18.composite.97L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.9.4N.42.8W.075pc.jpg

[jlauderdal]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

Based on a visible?

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

The convection on the south side is what the HWRF has been showing then it builds up the east side (happening now it appears) and wraps around..

so we shall see...

also of note.. it should already be above 10 N per the NHC first 2 advisories.. it is still heading West around 9.5 to 9.8N

let the southerly tracks shifts begin !

New convection appears to be firing on the NE side now

[NDG]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

That is racing at nearly 25-30 mph. Just don’t see how this can hold a circulation at this rate let alone intensify but we will see.

Elsa is in a deep easterly flow, from the low levels to the upper levels thanks to a stacked ridge to its north. With mid level winds in the 20-25 knot range convection shouldn't have that hard of a time catching up to the LLC. The only way I could see the LLC race away from the MLC if dry air gets entrained into the circulation.
Past the Lesser Antilles the usual grave yard for this time of the year will not be a grave yard this time because of the trough coming down the eastern US.

[eastcoastFL]

Latest HWRF is following the GFS in caving to EC's weaker solution in the Lesser Antilles.

Neither of them are much weaker. Instead of a minor hurricane in the high 980s, Elsa is a strong TS in the low 990s. If the 12z and 18z runs continue to get weaker, then we can say they’re caving into the Euro.

Previous runs of the GFS/HWRF were showing a pressure in the low to mid 980s in the Lesser Antilles. The latest GFS shows 998 mb and the HWRF close to 990 mb. So to me the rise is fairly significant, along with the faster and more northerly solution on the latest HWRF. The dry air and strong easterlies are keeping convection confined to the south of the LLC as of now.

Seems like all of the models take a more northerly course for a brief period before shifting back to a truer wnw motion. It’s just up in the air as to will it get far enough north to interact more with the islands. If it’s going to we need it to start that trek today because as Aric pointed out it’s still well south of the first two advisory points,

[NDG]

No doubt Elsa is a TS this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/gt7LeBj.gif

Based on a visible?

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Yes! And Satellite estimates show it as TS.

20210701 1130 9.7 50.3 T2.5/2.5 05L ELSA