ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Looks like tropical storm Elsa has formed...

Really not liking the track so far as I am in right in the middle of the forecast. That said, the forecast generally shifts right over time.... hopefully this general forecast trend continues.

[AlphaToOmega]

05L ELSA 210701 0600 9.3N 47.7W ATL 35 1006

There it is: Tropical Storm Elsa

[USTropics]

NHC essentially sticking with the previous track guidance, but note even they are uncertain due to model variance:

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial
motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated
to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system
quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is
significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The
ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with
Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K.
Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in
the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1410522067695439876

[EquusStorm]

Elsa on track to literally visit Disney World on Tuesday if long range track holds, that's definitely not gonna help stifle the infinite Frozen jokes that are already ongoing lol

[AlphaToOmega]

Forecasted peak intensity has gone up since last advisory (60 mph -> 65 mph). If this trend continues, we could see Hurricane Elsa.

[Shell Mound]

The has rotated to the south just like hwrf said.. and it looks just like the simulated sat image from hard right now. Pretty interesting

The 00Z HWRF, alone among the guidance, shows Elsa becoming a hurricane in just thirty hours. How plausible do you believe that scenario is as of now?

[Kingarabian]

First visible of the day.


Whether it intensifies or not, very impressive for June IMO.

[Chemmers]

Looking good this morning, wouldn’t be surprised if this get close to hurricane stats before it goes thought the lesser antilles unfortunate

[eastcoastFL]

The has rotated to the south just like hwrf said.. and it looks just like the simulated sat image from hard right now. Pretty interesting

The 00Z HWRF, alone among the guidance, shows Elsa becoming a hurricane in just thirty hours. How plausible do you believe that scenario is as of now?

I’m less interested in intensity forecasts and more so in track and that’s verified so far. Reason being is the track will be dependent on intensity down the road. It’s in some warmer waters with good upper level conditions the next thirty hours so that’s probably why it’s hyping intensity.

[eastcoastFL]

[TallyTracker]

No matter how good Elsa looks on satellite, that blistering forward speed could well be trouble since the storm does not have a really well defined circulation. There are so many examples of tropical storms that couldn’t hold their circulations together in the MDR while moving 30 mph. I’m still not 100% convinced Elsa won’t open up near the Lesser Antilles. IMO, it will need to be a moderate to strong TS ASAP and have a very robust circulation prior to accelerating tomorrow.

[Kohlecane]

First visible of the day.
https://i.postimg.cc/jdC0gBPy/image.png

Whether it intensifies or not, very impressive for June IMO.

Agreed. Very impressive looking storm, for practically a June storm, even though it got it's name a few hours into July. I am just impressed how low-riding this storm has been. And in all honesty 95L's existence in a way helping the environment ahead of this thing!

[aspen]

No matter how good Elsa looks on satellite, that blistering forward speed could well be trouble since the storm does not have a really well defined circulation. There are so many examples of tropical storms that couldn’t hold their circulations together in the MDR while moving 30 mph. I’m still not 100% convinced Elsa won’t open up near the Lesser Antilles. IMO, it will need to be a moderate to strong TS ASAP and have a very robust circulation prior to accelerating tomorrow.

We’ll see how it progresses throughout the day. So far it looks fantastic and has all of today to strengthen in an unusually favorable environment for late June/early July, and recon is scheduled for tomorrow morning to see how much it has strengthened. If Elsa hasn’t intensified much nor has developed a well defined core, then you might be right. If it continues to follow the HWRF’s predictions, then it’ll likely survive until running into one of the islands.

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa starting to appear on visible and it looks pretty good. Also just noticed how close it is to South America, pretty amazing how low it’s riding

[eastcoastFL]

Latest microwave loop

[AlphaToOmega]

Wind shear through the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~10 knots tomorrow. We will see if Tropical Storm Elsa can take advantage of that (look at 06Z GFS if you do not believe me).

[eastcoastFL]

Wind shear through the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~10 knots tomorrow. We will see if Tropical Storm Elsa can take advantage of that (look at 06Z GFS if you do not believe me).

Is that normal for early July?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1410547224258519044



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410544841700872194



 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1410538004603707393

[kevin]

Quite a few spectacular loops on this page of the forum, still difficult to believe this is a late June / early July storm.