ATL: ELSA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS is much closer to Jamaica on this run. I wonder if we are about to have more model shifts towards the SW?

https://i.imgur.com/OrziRHE.png

I was just thinking about that because the system is consolidating to the SW so the models will have to adjust for that. It’s forming pretty much how HWRF predicted

[eastcoastFL]

New GFS is more SW with the storm in the Caribbean.

Also ends up crossing extreme western Cuba keeping it more intact entering the gulf.

[Jr0d]

The GFS runs remind me of Charlie's track...not something anyone wants to see again.

Hopefully the model is being overly bullish and the EURO and others got a better grip on the future track and strength.

[Steve]

Yeah. GFS @ 500mb has got a slightly flatter pattern across the SE. And the slightly lower pressure off SELA is less pronounced. So GFS has 5 coming across Cuba farther west than the last few runs. It turns it north apparently in response to a trough pulling east from Quebec and the maritimes. How far out in the Gulf it will get will likely depend on that feature. This far out, you'd think the most it could do would be to slow it down. Future GFS estimates on the timing of Atlantic high pressure pulses should help clue us in on where and how bad the threat would be as we get closer to 3-4 days.

[captainbarbossa19]

The GFS is much closer to Jamaica on this run. I wonder if we are about to have more model shifts towards the SW?

https://i.imgur.com/OrziRHE.png

I was just thinking about that because the system is consolidating to the SW so the models will have to adjust for that. It’s forming pretty much how HWRF predicted

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL052021/14/GOES16-AL052021-14-1000x1000.gif?hash=27209

Watch the Euro still show this dissipate over Hispaniola.

[StPeteMike]

Keeps it way from the mountainous portion of the country. And as we have seen from many storms that cross over the western tip of Cuba…. there’s not that much impact.

Hoping the trough comes in sooner.

[Steve]

Canadian comes in around Big Cypress/Everglades and moves across Florida coming off around Cape Canaveral. But then it brushes the SC and NC coasts. Although CMC doesn't get it that strong, it does get it better organized as it gains latitude along the southeast coast. That's something that's got my eye for this season already, so even if it's wrong, it's good to see the CMC sniffing that out too.

ICON is weird as it actually favors 95L getting stronger off the Honduran coast and going into Belize then across the BOC toward the Mexican Gulf Coast. 5 struggles from interaction with Hispaniola and gets absorbed into the flow going east. It shows a lot of low pressure around the Mexican Gulf Coast, but that's a downstream result of 5 getting torn up and energy refocusing. I think this is an unlikely solution.

The hurricane models should be running about now.

[Fancy1001]

I'm wondering if we'll see enough West southwest shifts to where it goes below Jamaica before turning North towards the western tip of Cuba.

[Shell Mound]

The past few GFS/HWRF runs went from showing a ~980-mb hurricane in the Lesser Antilles to showing a ~1000-mb system at that time. They’re faster, too.

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Given recent GFS/HWRF runs, I would say that those models are gradually caving to the faster, weaker ECMWF solutions, as is typical. Another win for the ECMWF.

[mcheer23]

The past few GFS/HWRF runs went from showing a ~980-mb hurricane in the Lesser Antilles to showing a ~1000-mb system at that time. They’re faster, too.

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Given recent GFS/HWRF runs, I would say that those models are gradually caving to the faster, weaker ECMWF solutions, as is typical. Another win for the ECMWF.

You okay…?

[Shell Mound]

The past few GFS/HWRF runs went from showing a ~980-mb hurricane in the Lesser Antilles to showing a ~1000-mb system at that time. They’re faster, too.

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Given recent GFS/HWRF runs, I would say that those models are gradually caving to the faster, weaker ECMWF solutions, as is typical. Another win for the ECMWF.

You okay…?

I was referring to the short term. In the short term (≤72h) the ECMWF is winning in every category aside from depicting genesis properly. GFS/HWRF too deep, slow.

[DestinHurricane]

The past few GFS/HWRF runs went from showing a ~980-mb hurricane in the Lesser Antilles to showing a ~1000-mb system at that time. They’re faster, too.

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Given recent GFS/HWRF runs, I would say that those models are gradually caving to the faster, weaker ECMWF solutions, as is typical. Another win for the ECMWF.

The 00Z HWRF is literally the strongest run yet in the lesser Antilles, 983 at 42 hours. The Euro did not show anything until it was force fed, as usual.

[StPeteMike]

The 0z HWRF has a 983-mb by the time it gets to the islands. That’s only 1-mb higher than what the June 30 0z had entering the islands. Don’t think that’s a fair call to say that the storm is a bust…

[Steve]

^^ yeah Destin. HWRF shows it organized. It's moving fast though too which seemed to me to at least be part of why the EC wasn't aggressive. I only like HWRF short term because of the tendency to over intensify. But at 48 hours, you can see it has it at 984mb which is usually hurricane status. 13.9/63.13 @ 7 pm Friday. 2 day Benchmark.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont see this as hurr their think it stay under 60mph or so as get to cuba

[Shell Mound]

The past few GFS/HWRF runs went from showing a ~980-mb hurricane in the Lesser Antilles to showing a ~1000-mb system at that time. They’re faster, too.

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Given recent GFS/HWRF runs, I would say that those models are gradually caving to the faster, weaker ECMWF solutions, as is typical. Another win for the ECMWF.

The 00Z HWRF is literally the strongest run yet in the lesser Antilles, 983 at 42 hours. The Euro did not show anything until it was force fed, as usual.

Ah, thank you for clarifying. But the past two GFS runs have trended much weaker in the islands, and current convective trends support the GFS vs. HWRF.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF...66 hrs Cat 1-2... Slightly N of 18z

[StPeteMike]

nhc dont see this as hurr their think it stay under 60mph or so as get to cuba

It’s not that they don’t see Elsa as a hurricane, they do acknowledge their forecast is at the lower end of forecast intensity models and are being somewhat conservative.

They’re mainly waiting for the storm to pass the islands to get a better understanding on if there will be any interaction with the Greater Antilles.

[Steve]

Yeah, HWRF looks to be overdone and will hopefully fail. It has it coming up toward Haiti at 970mb in 75 hours which is like 11pm Saturday night or so.

[Blown Away]

Yeah, HWRF looks to be overdone and will hopefully fail. It has it coming up toward Haiti at 970mb in 75 hours which is like 11pm Saturday night or so.

00z HWRF... 87 hrs, full degree N of 18z... Clips Haiti, Moving NW into SE Cuba, 96 mph winds... Gonna ride the Cuba spine on this run...