ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

That consolidation to the southwest is going to be interesting when the next set of models initialize. We got a long road ahead so I won’t be waiting up for models tonight.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have been tracking hurricanes since 2017, and while each year has been memorable in their own ways, a possible formidable hurricane in July and a very active June and possible active MDR in general are definitely going to be what I remember after this year. I'm pretty confident about that.

[weeniepatrol]

Outflow expanding to the west... are we sure it's July

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the next thing to be on the lookout for is a nascent central dense overcast. Because if signs of that forming begin to manifest, then that would be serious.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://imgur.com/pZU1Myv

Outflow expanding to the west... are we sure it's July

What I am surprised about too is how low this system is. The GFS has shifted more SW in the Caribbean and now I am wondering if the shifts are not through yet?

On another note, I looked back at the track of Hurricane Dennis in 2005, and it actually didn't even become a depression until it was about to enter the Caribbean. Also, Dennis did not become a hurricane until it tracked closer to Jamaica and Hispaniola. This system is already a depression and is about a thousand miles east compared to where Dennis became a depression.

[Kingarabian]

It's far from building a CDO. It needs to build up its LLC first then start building some -70C/-80C cloud tops near it.

[Category5Kaiju]

While it was a late August storm, another historic storm that recently came into my mind (aside from the 1933 July hurricane, Dennis, or Emily) for some reason is Gustav. I guess it's because Gustav was an example of a storm that took full advantage of the waters off south Cuba (hence showing how that region of the Atlantic can serve as rocket fuel for storms under the right conditions)?

[captainbarbossa19]

While it was a late August storm, another historic storm that recently came into my mind (aside from the 1933 July hurricane, Dennis, or Emily) for some reason is Gustav. I guess it's because Gustav was an example of a storm that took full advantage of the waters off south Cuba (hence showing how that region of the Atlantic can serve as rocket fuel for storms under the right conditions)?

Oh man. I remember Gustav. More specifically, I remember the mass evacuations in my area for Gustav. That was absolutely insane. Most people said that our area needed to evacuate, but some of the local stations said "you can stay." The storm ended up hitting Central Louisiana and a whole lot of people evacuated for no reason. The following month, Ike came and some people who evacuated for Gustav decided to stay for Ike. That was not very smart.

To keep this discussion on topic, please listen to your local stations for information regarding this system if it threatens you later on. National television and reports can tell a lot, but often the local meteorologists can help you make a more informed decision on evacuating.

[Shell Mound]

The fact that the strongest convergence is occurring west of the LLC indicates that strong easterly shear is imparting unfavourable conditions. As expected, the past few GFS runs went from showing an intensifying hurricane of 983 mb in the Lesser Antilles to depicting a middling TS of 998 mb at the same time. Given this, I highly doubt that TD Five will survive beyond 70°W, in light of its weaker intensity to begin with as it nears and passes through the Lesser Antilles. This will end up being a significant bust for the GFS and HWRF in terms of short-term intensity. While the ECMWF was too conservative with genesis, the GFS/HWRF were far too bullish with intensity, as the marginal environment and fast forward speed implied. The strong trades and weaker initial intensity also explain the notable southwesterly shifts in the guidance beyond the Lesser Antilles.
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1410408676733571073

[captainbarbossa19]

The fact that the strongest convergence is occurring west of the LLC indicates that strong easterly shear is imparting unfavourable conditions. As expected, the past few GFS runs went from showing an intensifying hurricane of 983 mb in the Lesser Antilles to depicting a middling TS of 998 mb at the same time. Given this, I highly doubt that TD Five will survive beyond 70°W, in light of its weaker intensity to begin with as it nears and passes through the Lesser Antilles. This will end up being a significant bust for the GFS and HWRF in terms of short-term intensity. While the ECMWF was too conservative with genesis, the GFS/HWRF were far too bullish with intensity, as the marginal environment and fast forward speed implied. The strong trades and weaker initial intensity also explain the notable southwesterly shifts in the guidance beyond the Lesser Antilles.

This is certainly possible, but global models have not been very good at handling intensity with these storms. It seems like there were multiple storms last year that the global models kept much weaker than they were in reality.

[Stormybajan]

The fact that the strongest convergence is occurring west of the LLC indicates that strong easterly shear is imparting unfavourable conditions. As expected, the past few GFS runs went from showing an intensifying hurricane of 983 mb in the Lesser Antilles to depicting a middling TS of 998 mb at the same time. Given this, I highly doubt that TD Five will survive beyond 70°W, in light of its weaker intensity to begin with as it nears and passes through the Lesser Antilles. This will end up being a significant bust for the GFS and HWRF in terms of short-term intensity. While the ECMWF was too conservative with genesis, the GFS/HWRF were far too bullish with intensity, as the marginal environment and fast forward speed implied. The strong trades and weaker initial intensity also explain the notable southwesterly shifts in the guidance beyond the Lesser Antilles.

In the end I think they will both have to meet in the middle with this. Right now 60-65 mph mid 990s storm seems to the safest option,could turn out to be less or more but I am confident in this prediction. Also a more southernly track would put Grenada in play so they will also have to monitor TD5's progress throughout tomorrow

[Blown Away]

To me it appears the LLC is very broad with N half exposed on N side of 10N/47.5W.

[MarioProtVI]

The fact that the strongest convergence is occurring west of the LLC indicates that strong easterly shear is imparting unfavourable conditions. As expected, the past few GFS runs went from showing an intensifying hurricane of 983 mb in the Lesser Antilles to depicting a middling TS of 998 mb at the same time. Given this, I highly doubt that TD Five will survive beyond 70°W, in light of its weaker intensity to begin with as it nears and passes through the Lesser Antilles. This will end up being a significant bust for the GFS and HWRF in terms of short-term intensity. While the ECMWF was too conservative with genesis, the GFS/HWRF were far too bullish with intensity, as the marginal environment and fast forward speed implied. The strong trades and weaker initial intensity also explain the notable southwesterly shifts in the guidance beyond the Lesser Antilles.

No. It’s not 2019 and I’m certain most remember the last time someone said that with a similar 05L and look how that turned out.

[Monsoonjr99]

The fact that the strongest convergence is occurring west of the LLC indicates that strong easterly shear is imparting unfavourable conditions. As expected, the past few GFS runs went from showing an intensifying hurricane of 983 mb in the Lesser Antilles to depicting a middling TS of 998 mb at the same time. Given this, I highly doubt that TD Five will survive beyond 70°W, in light of its weaker intensity to begin with as it nears and passes through the Lesser Antilles. This will end up being a significant bust for the GFS and HWRF in terms of short-term intensity. While the ECMWF was too conservative with genesis, the GFS/HWRF were far too bullish with intensity, as the marginal environment and fast forward speed implied. The strong trades and weaker initial intensity also explain the notable southwesterly shifts in the guidance beyond the Lesser Antilles.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1410408676733571073

Arguably wouldn't easterly shear help offset the fast trades? Storm-relative shear may be more favorable than otherwise.

[EquusStorm]

ATCF seems to be showing 35kt, so if NHC follows, we may have Elsa next advisory.

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

05L ELSA 210701 0600 9.3N 47.7W ATL 35 1006

[Kingarabian]

For the GFS/NCEP solutions to verify, It's important that in the next 24 hours the LLC gets tucked beneath the coldest convection. Its been holding this displaced NE position for the past 6 hours.




Though this ADT fix is too NE.

[Shell Mound]

It's far from building a CDO. It needs to build up its LLC first then start building some -70C/-80C cloud tops near it.

As mentioned previously, at the current rate TD Five/Elsa is going to be well short of hurricane status by the time it enters the Lesser Antilles. Moderate TS is likely.

[Aric Dunn]

The has rotated to the south just like hwrf said.. and it looks just like the simulated sat image from hard right now. Pretty interesting