ATL: ELSA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Can you tell if the Euro initialized in the right location? Also what was the pressure when it initialized?

[SFLcane]

[Cat5James]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT7dkjnh/493-CAC18-FA41-4-B61-B5-DA-94-A0-C21-E322-C.gif

... I'd say thats a threat to Florida.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT7dkjnh/493-CAC18-FA41-4-B61-B5-DA-94-A0-C21-E322-C.gif

... I'd say thats a threat to Florida.

It's potential. A threat is putting up the shutters.
Need a real COC. Until that happens models will swing back & forth significantly.

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT7dkjnh/493-CAC18-FA41-4-B61-B5-DA-94-A0-C21-E322-C.gif

So these models go with basically an Irma track up the peninsula of Florida.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1410379604263686150

[USTropics]

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Can you tell if the Euro initialized in the right location? Also what was the pressure when it initialized?

Looking at weathermodels.com (can't post here because of TOS), they both initialized at the correct latitude, the ECMWF is slightly higher in longitude. Here is the forecasted position from weather.us for 10PM ET:

ECMWF


GFS


On a more granular level, ECMWF has a rotating mesovortices rotating to the south:

[Blown Away]

I would like to know what’s going on with the TVCN, very unusual it being such a far outlier from the pack considering it’s a consensus of many models. That sharp zag at the end probably some glitch, but past few runs it’s way R??

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.postimg.cc/MT7dkjnh/493-CAC18-FA41-4-B61-B5-DA-94-A0-C21-E322-C.gif

... I'd say thats a threat to Florida.

It's potential. A threat is putting up the shutters.
Need a real COC. Until that happens models will swing back & forth significantly.

A threat is a potential. If it were imminent you’d be putting up shutters. When you’re in the cone it becomes a potential threat. When you’re in the 3 day come it’s time to run or hunker down.

[eastcoastFL]

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/xJNcvqc.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/VXgBp34.png

It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/enGYreQ.png

GFS ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/k6yKUFD.png

Can you tell if the Euro initialized in the right location? Also what was the pressure when it initialized?

Looking at weathermodels.com (can't post here because of TOS), they both initialized at the correct latitude, the ECMWF is slightly higher in longitude. Here is the forecasted position from weather.us for 10PM ET:

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/uTSc3VM.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/qg5ZcEs.png

On a more granular level, ECMWF has a rotating mesovortices rotating to the south:
https://i.imgur.com/tlqMmtG.png

Thank you. I couldn’t on tidbits. They look pretty darn close. That’s what I was trying to find out.

[eastcoastFL]

I would like to know what’s going on with the TVCN, very unusual it being such a far outlier from the pack considering it’s a consensus of many models. That sharp zag at the end probably some glitch, but past few runs it’s way R??

I noticed that too. It’s been making some odd sharp turns. Shouldn’t it be up the middle?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its just a model. Theres nothing to indicate a florida landfall at all right now, that cone will move as cones always do when its this early

Please do not panic.

I have had enough of the gas runs, toilet paper runs, propane mania, foodapocalyse and everything else the last 2 years have thrown at me living in florida

Please do not panic for god sakes. Wait before we call it

[eastcoastFL]

Its just a model. Theres nothing to indicate a florida landfall at all right now, that cone will move as cones always do when its this early

Please do not panic.

I have had enough of the gas runs, toilet paper runs, propane mania, foodapocalyse and everything else the last 2 years have thrown at me living in florida

Please do not panic for god sakes. Wait before we call it

Nobody is panic. It’s a debate over semantics really.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1410417803618889731

[eastcoastFL]

http://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1410417803618889731?s=21

I’m still unsure as to why almost every model stays south of the islands except for the euro plowing into to Hispaniola..why?

[USTropics]

I would like to know what’s going on with the TVCN, very unusual it being such a far outlier from the pack considering it’s a consensus of many models. That sharp zag at the end probably some glitch, but past few runs it’s way R??

I noticed that too. It’s been making some odd sharp turns. Shouldn’t it be up the middle?

Keep in mind the TVCN is the consensus of the past two runs of the TCON model suite + the ECMWF model. TCON is the consensus of the GUNA model suite + HWRF. GUNA now includes COAMPS and the GFS + interpolated versions of the HMON and UKMET.

Confusing? Add up that flow chart and you get TCON = past two runs of the ECMWF, GFS, UKMETI, COAMPS, HWRF, and HMONI with no corrections to known model bias (I believe only the TVCC has corrections). Best guess is the TVCN has wild swings due to how some of the past two runs of the models (ECWMF, UKMET, and HMON specifically) essentially dissipate the storm over Cuba/Hispaniola (and tracking becomes erratic thereafter).

[eastcoastFL]

I would like to know what’s going on with the TVCN, very unusual it being such a far outlier from the pack considering it’s a consensus of many models. That sharp zag at the end probably some glitch, but past few runs it’s way R??

I noticed that too. It’s been making some odd sharp turns. Shouldn’t it be up the middle?

Keep in mind the TVCN is the consensus of the past two runs of the TCON model suite + the ECMWF model. TCON is the consensus of the GUNA model suite + HWRF. GUNA now includes COAMPS and the GFS + interpolated versions of the HMON and UKMET.

Confusing? Add up that flow chart and you get TCON = past two runs of the ECMWF, GFS, UKMETI, COAMPS, HWRF, and HMONI with no corrections to known model bias (I believe only the TVCC has corrections). Best guess is the TVCN has wild swings due to how some of the past two runs of the models (ECWMF, UKMET, and HMON specifically) essentially dissipate the storm over Cuba/Hispaniola (and tracking becomes erratic thereafter).

That makes sense since the euro is heading further north into Hispaniola then it’s remnants head out to see. That probably causes the TVCN to be a whacky outlier.

[USTropics]

For documenting purposes, this was the 12z COAMPS spaghetti plot:



These and similar products can be found here - https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

[captainbarbossa19]

New GFS is more SW with the storm in the Caribbean.

[captainbarbossa19]

The GFS is much closer to Jamaica on this run. I wonder if we are about to have more model shifts towards the SW?