ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Elsa, is that you?

B. 30/2330Z

C. 9.8N

D. 44.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND
PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

That should do it…

[Kingarabian]

Very possible the NHC calls it by the next update. However they haven't been fans of systems with deepest convection displaced about 2-3 degrees away from the LLC.

[galaxy401]

Looks like a clear circulation to me. That along with the 2.5 should mean an upgrade to Elsa tonight.

[SFLcane]

No upgrade…

[SFLcane]

TD now it seems…

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD,

[Aric Dunn]

No upgrade…

https://i.postimg.cc/LX3M85q1/DDC6-C1-FC-1701-4406-BE68-4-D542-F0176-FE.jpg

have to check the ambiguities before any decision.

[Subtrop]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[InfernoFlameCat]

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

Agree! which is why I booked my 10-day camping trip to the N Georgia mountains for this time period 6 months ago, and not Labor Day weekend.

We leave on Saturday...guess I may have to do some outside prep if current GFS track holds (which they hardly ever do this far out).

not liking that black line, for the record.

Sup That’s where I live. Very beautiful up there

[Hammy]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

Hopefully we can get an ASCAT pass with tropical storm winds or some convective bursting in the next few hours so we can get a name in June (at least local time)

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

[ElectricStorm]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

That's 0z July 1 so technically it's not. But I suspect they will move it back to sometime today post season. But as of right now this is a July TD

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

That's 0z July 1 so technically it's not. But I suspect they will move it back to sometime today post season. But as of right now this is a July TD

Well four in my time zone (EDT), so for me it counts

[SFLcane]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

They can change it before 11 pm.

[Aric Dunn]

THis ASCAT had a lot of missing data/rain contamination.

hopefully the northern quad on the next two are not missing lol

pretty sure we will see TS winds.

[InfernoFlameCat]

THis ASCAT had a lot of missing data/rain contamination.

hopefully the northern quad on the next two are not missing lol

pretty sure we will see TS winds.

Yes

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT-C missed it..

so it will come down to ASCAT-B

[cycloneye]

ASCAT-C missed it..

so it will come down to ASCAT-B

At what time that one comes?

[ElectricStorm]

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

That's 0z July 1 so technically it's not. But I suspect they will move it back to sometime today post season. But as of right now this is a July TD

Well four in my time zone (EDT), so for me it counts

Same for my time zone. I'm definitely counting it too I was just pointing out the technicality of it

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT-C missed it..

so it will come down to ASCAT-B

At what time that one comes?

typically no later than 11 ish.

[Aric Dunn]

nope it missed it too..

so unless the NHC takes a look at the ASCAT-A ambiguities .. probably no TS