ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Yah this is something I’d expect to see late august mid sept

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

[eastcoastFL]

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

Homestead to key west is currently in the NHC cone. That’s part of Florida

[eastcoastFL]

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

Im also referring to where they’ve originated not where they are when they get classified. So maybe there’s some confusion

[SFLcane]

And there it is…

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1410389741065883650

[jdjaguar]

Yah this is something I’d expect to see late august mid sept

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

Agree! which is why I booked my 10-day camping trip to the N Georgia mountains for this time period 6 months ago, and not Labor Day weekend.

We leave on Saturday...guess I may have to do some outside prep if current GFS track holds (which they hardly ever do this far out).

not liking that black line, for the record.

[lhpfish]

Time to get the generator out and fix the chainsaw. Good trial run

[jlauderdal]

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

The nhc cone of confusion includes a part of florida and that cone will be including a larger part of florida moving forward.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

That should be enough

[Cat5James]

No threat to Florida? What? This more of a threat to FL then any other state at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

HY-2B ( Note: Low wind bias )

ASCATs will follow in about 2 hours. but they were similar earlier to the HY-2B so we should see an upgrade if they come in before the 11pm advisory.

[toad strangler]

The nhc cone of confusion includes a part of florida and that cone will be including a larger part of florida moving forward.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

I have mad respect for the NHC cone. But there is no threat of anything right now. Tracks are one thing, intensity is a much different animal and almost impossible to predict this far out. But, as always, you should have your storm preps 95% done by June 1!

[aspen]

HY-2B ( Note: Low wind bias )

ASCATs will follow in about 2 hours. but they were similar earlier to the HY-2B so we should see an upgrade if they come in before the 11pm advisory.

https://i.ibb.co/vkJZcmJ/Capture.png

That is a massive improvement from earlier today. No “secondary circulation”-like feature, and no connection to the ITCZ. It’s a little elongated but probably defined enough for an upgrade.

[Aric Dunn]

HY-2B ( Note: Low wind bias )

ASCATs will follow in about 2 hours. but they were similar earlier to the HY-2B so we should see an upgrade if they come in before the 11pm advisory.

https://i.ibb.co/vkJZcmJ/Capture.png

That is a massive improvement from earlier today. No “secondary circulation”-like feature, and no connection to the ITCZ. It’s a little elongated but probably defined enough for an upgrade.

For reference here is the Hy-2B from this morning.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HY-2B ( Note: Low wind bias )

ASCATs will follow in about 2 hours. but they were similar earlier to the HY-2B so we should see an upgrade if they come in before the 11pm advisory.

https://i.ibb.co/vkJZcmJ/Capture.png

That is a massive improvement from earlier today. No “secondary circulation”-like feature, and no connection to the ITCZ. It’s a little elongated but probably defined enough for an upgrade.

For reference here is the Hy-2B from this morning.

https://knmi-scatterometer-website-prd.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/tile_prod/products/hy_2b_20210630_08_69_flag.png

Yeah, I'd predict at least an upgrade to a TD at 11 at this point.

[tolakram]

saved proxy visible loop

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL052021/NightMicrophysics/20211812320_GOES16-ABI-FL-NightMicrophysics-AL052021-2000x2000.jpg

[tolakram]

SLIDER GEOCOLOR floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1118&y=1110&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[cycloneye]

Elsa, is that you?

B. 30/2330Z

C. 9.8N

D. 44.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND
PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa, is that you?

B. 30/2330Z

C. 9.8N

D. 44.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND
PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

T2.5 should do it, shouldn’t it?

[eastcoastFL]

Convection continuing to fire.