ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

This is not the time of year that I like storms like this forming in that region. June-July and Sept-Oct are not good for Florida.

[presidentofyes12]

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1410345072554647557?s=21

Beautiful symmetry for a PTC.

Definitely has great symmetry. I'm thinking this will be a TC by 11 PM, at most.

[toad strangler]

No H, yet…

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205228_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This track is almost surreal for June/early July.

It's in line with historical July NOAA climo tracks

[tolakram]

In case you missed the earlier message, junk posts will be deleted. THIS INCLUDES MEMES and references to them.

SLIDER proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17006&y=9038&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Category5Kaiju]

Yup. Storms recurving towards Florida is definitely a possible track given the time of the year

[ScottNAtlanta]

In case you missed the earlier message, junk posts will be deleted. THIS INCLUDES MEMES and references to them.

SLIDER proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17006&y=9038&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

If the convection keeps firing over the center like that, this will tighten up in no time

[wxman57]

Forward speed predicted to be 25 kts for the next 36-48hrs. That's pretty fast.

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical cyclone at 8 PM

1. The track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 05L has consistently remained south of Invest 95L, meaning it has warmer waters to play with but will not experience the Coriolis Effect as greatly as Invest 95L.
2. Invest 95L has sucked up much of the dry air coming from Africa, creating a region of humid air in which Potential Tropical Cyclone 05L can develop.
3. Wind shear in the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~20 knots throughout next week, meaning it will likely be unable to intensify into a major hurricane.
4. All model guidance suggests a tropical storm, and most of the models take it to hurricane status.

[Aric Dunn]

ANother new MIcrowave. Center is quite clear again.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 97L.INVEST,

[Fancy1001]

So will Elsa form in June or July? That's the real question we're all asking right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So will Elsa form in June or July? That's the real question we're all asking right now.

Unless it's named before 8pm (00z UTC July 1) then probably July.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks incredible. Upgrade should be imminent.

[Stormybajan]

Looks like a bittt of dry air is affecting it to the north

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like a bittt of dry air is affecting it to the north

Unfortunately I highly doubt that that will impact the overall evolution of this system for now

[presidentofyes12]

Tropical cyclone at 8 PM

1. The track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 05L has consistently remained south of Invest 95L, meaning it has warmer waters to play with but will not experience the Coriolis Effect as greatly as Invest 95L.
2. Invest 95L has sucked up much of the dry air coming from Africa, creating a region of humid air in which Potential Tropical Cyclone 05L can develop.
3. Wind shear in the Caribbean Sea is expected to be ~20 knots throughout next week, meaning it will likely be unable to intensify into a major hurricane.
4. All model guidance suggests a tropical storm, and most of the models take it to hurricane status.

Thank you, 95L. PTC5 will remember your sacrifice. /j
Anyways, it's very likely that PTC5 will become Elsa soon in my opinion, and it's beginning to look a bit like that simulated IR image from the HWRF model I posted some time ago.

[eastcoastFL]

No H, yet…

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205228_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This track is almost surreal for June/early July.

Yah this is something I’d expect to see late august mid sept

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.ibb.co/N6q6GQq/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso1-sandwich-20-57-Z-20210630-map-36-1n-1-150.gif

As someone said in the "models" forum for ptc5, it looks more like this every minute:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021063012/hwrf_satIR_97L_4.png

Probably me. It’s surreal how well HWRF predicts these IR structures. I’ve been looking at last nights runs and comparing to the current IR structure and it’s freaky how on point it is.

[toad strangler]

No H, yet…

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205228_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This track is almost surreal for June/early July.

Yah this is something I’d expect to see late august mid sept

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

[Kingarabian]

The western structure of PTC 5 sorta looks like the previous HWRF simulated IR but the rest of the cloud temps are completely off.

[eastcoastFL]

This track is almost surreal for June/early July.

Yah this is something I’d expect to see late august mid sept

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.