ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

COD MET FLOATER
this sat rocks!!!!!!
----use the globe on the left menu (inside the sat page)
for overlay options--------

https://imgur.com/G5V9XhI

LOOP LINK
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

This is awesome thank you! However...looking at this...if that isnt atleast a TD at 5 pm then they must 100% go to a PTC so the islands can get the warnings we need.

[psyclone]

It's pretty easy to play the odds and bet against a strong system. Most disturbances, even in peak season, don't become strong...let alone one in no man's land in early season. time will tell. but from my POV... we have a system of yet to be determined intensity in a region where we're entitled to little if anything. That automatically elevates it to an overperformer IMO..

[InfernoFlameCat]

Look at that thing go. Not only will it be the earliest named storm(I think we can all agree besides mound this will become a tc) but it will most likely be a much more significant one compared to last years Eduardo.

[Mouton]

Levi has a good update just out.

This last sentence in Bastardi's pre season evaluation of conditions for the season is relevant:

"With all these things in mind, when it's all said and done, back to back, this may exceed 2004 and 2005 and become the new benchmark for hurricane hits on the U.S."

I think his forecast is based on the position of the high to the NE funneling all storms seemingly along the east coast and east of the mid gulf.

Anyway, a tad early to push the panic buttons on this one IMO. Should have a clearer picture in 3-4 days.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a couple of the initial ( I call them leaders) towers are starting to fire around the center.

no way this is not a TS already.

[Nimbus]

Earlier Levi Cowan mentioned that 97L was still drawing moisture from the ITCZ which has been feeding it into a TS. Probably closed off by now, the inflow looked pretty ferocious earlier, should be a more symmetric circular SCAT soon.. Not liking the model tracks one bit, no weakness to the north.

[StPeteMike]

Agree with the analysis from Bastardi, Mouton. Yes, don’t want to press the panic button already, but the current setup of the High and the early performance of the MDR is really concerning for us here in Florida and the Eastern Coast. Anything could happen to weaken the High later on in the season, but if it stays like this come August/September with even better conditions…. Not good.

[Jr0d]

looks like a couple of the initial ( I call them leaders) towers are starting to fire around the center.

no way this is not a TS already.

I don't think the NHC will upgrade untill 11pm....my guess is they will go with 90 to near 100pm at 8pm(edt) and then upgrade at 11pm to a depression....too late for a 4th named June storm.

We will find out soon ...

[DestinHurricane]

Should see a PTC at 5 would be my guess. I think NHC wants more scat passes before the pull trigger on TD/TS. As far as their forecasted peak, I doubt they put the H on the cone the first advisory. Probably a 60 kt peak but i'm just speculating.

[ElectricStorm]

I think they might just be waiting to see if it sustains itself before upgrading. If it does, then I could see them moving the development time earlier in the TCR post-season.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a couple of the initial ( I call them leaders) towers are starting to fire around the center.

no way this is not a TS already.

I don't think the NHC will upgrade untill 11pm....my guess is they will go with 90 to near 100pm at 8pm(edt) and then upgrade at 11pm to a depression....too late for a 4th named June storm.

We will find out soon ...

Yeah they are are typically conservative..

was just pointing it out lol..

they will wait for the next round of SCAT passes just before 11pm

[Cat5James]

looks like a couple of the initial ( I call them leaders) towers are starting to fire around the center.

no way this is not a TS already.

The 850MB and 500 MB vorticity are now stacked. I'd have to agree here.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just fyi, but at least according to some recent model runs (12z GFS especially), future Elsa has a chance of taking a Charley-esque track where it crosses Cuba and then hits the west coast of the state. Still far out in time, but I do think Florida may want to keep an eye out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It appears deep convection has initiated. Sustained high echo tops near the center are ongoing. This is a Td at minimum. Ts in my eyes.

[aspen]

looks like a couple of the initial ( I call them leaders) towers are starting to fire around the center.

no way this is not a TS already.

The 850MB and 500 MB vorticity are now stacked. I'd have to agree here.

I’m guessing it’s 35-40 kt right now, since the last ASCAT pass showed some 35 kt wind barbs and the system has gotten better organized. Maybe a case could be made for 45 kt, but that’s stretching it IMO.

[eastcoastFL]

[Blown Away]

It appears deep convection has initiated. Sustained high echo tops near the center are ongoing. This is a Td at minimum. Ts in my eyes.

[Jr0d]

Just fyi, but at least according to some recent model runs (12z GFS especially), future Elsa has a chance of taking a Charley-esque track where it crosses Cuba and then hits the west coast of the state. Still far out in time, but I do think Florida may want to keep an eye out.

Don't like this forecast at all. Looks like I will spending my weekend getting my boat ready for stormy weather.

[AutoPenalti]

Despite it looking a little squashed to the north thanks to some dry air, it does seem to be intensifying just like the HWRF forecasted yesterday.

[SFLcane]

I'd wait for ASCAT Still pretty anemic on north side.